On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises dropped to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 32 tons were absorbed by the market. With cash flow remaining high and downstream purchasing intentions frozen, the chemical fiber market is trapped in a typical 'high profit, low transaction' deadlock.
Sales Data Perspective: The Real Temperature of Demand
Looking at the detailed sales data for that day, among 25 sample enterprises, only three achieved a sales ratio above 50%, with the highest at 70%. Meanwhile, two companies recorded zero sales, and 11 others had ratios below 20%. The overall distribution shows a 'long-tail shrinkage' pattern — most enterprises experienced sluggish transactions, a few barely maintained, and only a handful recorded relatively active trading.
This divergence is not coincidental. The persistently high cash flow means upstream factories still have profit margins and are unwilling to proactively lower prices. Downstream users, facing high raw material costs and poor transmission of end-order prices, are choosing to reduce or even halt procurement. The game between the two sides has evolved from a 'price tug-of-war' to a 'volume freeze'.
The Double-Edged Sword of High Cash Flow
Currently, the cash flow for polyester filament yarn remains at a relatively high level, which protects factory profits but suppresses market liquidity. High cash flow typically corresponds to higher product pricing, while downstream weaving enterprises struggle to pass on raw material costs due to sluggish terminal garment order prices.
According to industry public data, downstream weaving machine operating rates showed a slight decline in late June. If the high cash flow persists, inventory pressure at factories will gradually accumulate. Once inventory exceeds the safety threshold, the risk of price softening or even a sharp drop increases significantly. Notably, the sales-to-production ratio has been below 40% for several consecutive days, with inventories growing at a rate of 3-5% per week.
Regional Industrial Cluster Response: Changes in Procurement Pace from Keqiao to Shengze
As the largest chemical fiber industrial clusters in China, the procurement dynamics in Shaoxing Keqiao and Suzhou Shengze are bellwethers. Feedback from these clusters indicates that since late June, the raw material stocking cycle for weaving enterprises has shortened from the previous 7-10 days to 3-5 days, with just-in-time purchasing becoming the mainstream strategy. Some small weaving mills have even suspended regular procurement, only making sporadic replenishments.
This 'de-stocking' procurement behavior directly dragged down the sample enterprises' sales ratios. Under the backdrop of high cash flow, there is a clear mismatch between upstream factories' pricing strategies and downstream procurement pace: factories want to protect profits, while downstream buyers are waiting for price cuts. Both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move.
Upstream and Downstream Transmission: Dual Pressure from Crude Oil Volatility and Terminal Orders
Crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum, weakening cost support for polyester. Despite ongoing volatility in the Middle East, the crude oil market's reaction has been muted, leaving intermediate products like PX and PTA without clear direction. This cost uncertainty further exacerbates the wait-and-see sentiment across the industrial chain.
From the terminal end, the recovery of global textile and apparel demand is slow. Restocking from European and American markets has been weaker than expected, and incremental orders from emerging markets like Southeast Asia have not fully offset the gap. The 'volume and price weakness' of terminal orders transmits upstream, ultimately forming the current stalemate in the polyester filament yarn market.