On July 2, industry data showed that the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, less than 32 tons were absorbed by the market. Inventory accumulation is accelerating, while cash flow remains high, pushing the price game between upstream and downstream into a white-hot phase.
Signals Behind the Sales-to-Production Data
Looking at the detailed data from that day, the distribution among 25 sample enterprises was highly uneven: the highest ratio reached 70%, while the lowest was 0%. The specific breakdown is as follows:
- Only 2 enterprises had ratios above 50% (60% and 70%)
- 5 enterprises were in the 30%-50% range
- 18 enterprises had ratios below 30%, including 2 with 0%
This 'long-tail' distribution indicates that the market is not uniformly weak but shows clear divergence. A few enterprises maintained relatively stable shipments due to product differentiation or customer loyalty, but most are facing severe destocking pressure. Public data also shows that cash flow for polyester filament remains high, meaning raw material costs have not significantly declined, while terminal demand is contracting, squeezing producers' profit margins.
Downstream Resistance: The Paradox of High Cash Flow and Low Sales
High cash flow typically signals good profitability, but the current situation exposes a structural contradiction—a disconnect between cost and demand. Supported by upstream raw materials like PTA and MEG, polyester filament prices remain firm, but downstream weaving and dyeing companies' willingness to accept high prices is nearing its limit.
Historically, when the sales-to-production ratio stays below 40% for several consecutive days, it often signals a forthcoming reduction in downstream operating rates. Weaving companies face a dilemma: accepting orders means bearing high raw material costs, while rejecting them risks shutdown losses. This resistance is directly reflected in procurement behavior—shifting from forward buying to just-in-time replenishment, with inventory cycles significantly shortened.
Chain Reaction: From Chemical Fiber to Final Garments
Polyester filament is a key intermediate raw material in the textile industry chain, and its sales-to-production fluctuations ripple through industrial clusters. In production hubs like Xiaoshan, Zhejiang, and Shengze, Jiangsu, inventory build-up will first impact local polyester plants' operating loads. If low sales persist for more than a week, some plants may choose to cut production or conduct maintenance to adjust supply.
Further downstream, gray fabric markets will face dual pressures of tightening raw material supply and price volatility. Foreign trade orders typically lock in prices 2-3 months in advance; if the current low sales ratio evolves into a price war, it could disrupt export quotations and increase order-taking risks.