The polyester filament market is experiencing a rare 'ice and fire' scenario. On July 2, industry data showed the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. Meanwhile, cash flow remained high, and downstream user resistance continued to ferment. This set of contradictory data reveals the intensifying price tug-of-war between the upstream and downstream of the chemical fiber industrial chain.
New Low in Sales Rate: A Real Signal from the Demand Side
The sales-to-output ratio is a core indicator measuring supply-demand dynamics in the chemical fiber market. At 31.7%, it means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, less than 32 tons are actually absorbed. Specifically, the sales data of sample enterprises on that day were highly uneven, ranging from 0% to 70%, but mostly concentrated in the 20%-35% range, with some enterprises reporting zero transactions. This is not a random fluctuation but a direct reflection of downstream weaving and texturing enterprises actively slowing their procurement pace.
When polyester filament cash flow is at a high level, upstream polyester plants have very limited room for concessions, while downstream users' acceptance of high-priced raw materials is nearing a critical point. The sluggish market atmosphere and scarce actual transactions indicate that the current price level has failed to effectively stimulate demand. For buyers, this is both a reason to wait and a potential opportunity for negotiation.
High Costs vs. Downstream Resistance: The Transmission Dilemma of the Industrial Chain
The high cash flow of polyester filament mainly stems from the cost support of upstream PTA and MEG, as well as the price-stabilizing strategy of polyester plants. However, this cost transmission mechanism is failing—downstream weaving enterprises are under dual pressure from insufficient final orders and accumulated finished product inventories, making them unable to digest high-priced raw materials.
From the perspective of industrial belt reactions, the operating rates of weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces (such as Shengze and Keqiao) have shown signs of loosening. Some small and medium-sized weaving factories are choosing to reduce production or shut down to avoid the risk of inverted raw material prices. This deadlock of 'upstream holding prices, downstream refusing to accept' is compressing the profit space of the entire chemical fiber industrial chain. If the sales rate continues to stay below 40% for more than a week, polyester plants may be forced to cut prices to reduce inventory, at which point polyester filament prices will face downward pressure.
Price Expectations and Procurement Strategies: Short-term Games and Long-term Adjustments
In the current market structure, price expectations have become the key variable determining transaction volumes. Downstream users generally believe that polyester filament prices have room to fall, so they adopt the reverse operation of 'buying when prices rise, not when they fall'—the more prices drop, the more they wait. Polyester plants, on the other hand, hope that cost support from crude oil and PX can maintain price stability.
This game will not last indefinitely. According to historical patterns, a sales rate consistently below 30% usually triggers factory promotional price cuts within 5-7 trading days. For buyers with rigid demand, it may be wise to moderately bet on this window, but they must be wary of the risk of missing out due to sudden cost-side increases. Foreign trade companies should focus on exchange rate fluctuations and overseas order rhythms to avoid passive quoting caused by lagging domestic price adjustments.