On July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises plummeted to 35.8%, a drop of 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. What does this number mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons are successfully sold. Inventories are piling up quickly, while downstream buyers are collectively 'lying flat' in the face of high prices.
The Industry Chill Behind the Data
The specific sales-to-production data among sample enterprises shows extreme divergence: the lowest is 0%, the highest is only 85%, with most concentrated in the 20%-40% range. This 'ice and fire' situation is no accident. Although manufacturers have adjusted list prices, actual transaction prices remain stable, indicating that upstream producers are unwilling to cut prices to stimulate sales, while downstream buyers stick to just-in-time purchasing, refusing to build inventory.
Polyester filament yarn is a core raw material in the middle of the textile industry chain. Its sales-to-production ratio directly reflects the willingness of downstream weaving and dyeing sectors to operate. A ratio of 35.8% is a rare low point in recent months, implying that weaving enterprises are actively destocking and are pessimistic about the future.
Price Stalemate Along the Chain: From Crude Oil to Fabric
Upstream crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum. Despite repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, oil prices have failed to rise, directly weakening the cost support logic for chemical fiber products. Meanwhile, downstream demand for apparel and home textiles has not shown a clear recovery, trapping the entire textile chain in a 'price tug-of-war': upstream wants to protect margins and won't reduce prices, while downstream waits for even lower prices and won't buy.
This deadlock has a particularly noticeable impact on textile industrial belts like Shengze, Keqiao, and Nantong. In Shengze, the operating rate of water-jet looms has declined slightly; in Keqiao, fabric traders are generally shortening their purchasing cycles; in Nantong, bedding enterprises are using more inventory raw materials for production and reducing new orders.
A Neglected Long-Term Concern: Heat and Labor
Extreme heat is impacting the global textile industry. India, a major textile producer, is expected to lose 34 million textile jobs by 2030 due to high temperatures. Although China has not yet experienced such extreme job losses, issues like summer heat-related power rationing and reduced worker productivity have already emerged in some areas.
Heat not only affects production but also changes downstream stocking patterns. Traditionally, June-July is the stocking period for autumn/winter fabrics, but this year, high temperatures have led some weaving enterprises to shorten working hours, extending order delivery cycles and further suppressing purchasing intentions.