The chemical fiber market at the beginning of July did not usher in the warmth of the traditional peak season, but was instead cooled by a set of production and sales data. Industry public data shows that on July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, less than 36 tons were actually purchased, and inventory pressure is being transmitted upstream in the industrial chain.
Sales Ratio Distribution Reveals Regional and Product Differentiation
Looking at specific production and sales data, the sales ratios on that day were extremely unevenly distributed, with a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 85%. Most enterprises were concentrated in the 20%-40% range, with only a few reaching above 60%. This differentiation is not accidental—enterprises with high inventories often had a stronger pricing stance in the early stage, while those that offered price concessions partially cleared their inventories. Regional differences are also evident. Some large factories in the main production areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang had sales ratios below 20%, while some small and medium-sized factories achieved relatively higher transactions through flexible pricing. By product type, the transaction situations for FDY and POY were slightly better than for DTY, reflecting the rising sensitivity of downstream weaving links to raw material costs.
High-Price Resistance is the Core Contradiction in the Current Market
Why has the sales ratio fallen to such a low level? The fundamental reason lies in the price game between upstream and downstream, which has entered a white-hot stage. Upstream polyester factories, supported by crude oil costs, insist on a strategy of adjusting list prices while keeping actual transactions stable, and are reluctant to lower prices easily. However, downstream weaving and texturing enterprises face the dual pressure of insufficient end-order demand and thin profits, and have very low willingness to accept high-priced raw materials. This stalemate of 'upstream unwilling to lower prices, downstream unwilling to buy' has led to sluggish market transactions. From historical experience, when the sales ratio falls below 40% for several consecutive days, it often means that the destocking cycle is about to begin, and price relaxation is only a matter of time.
Dual Squeeze from Cost Side and Demand Side
The current chemical fiber industry is facing a typical 'sandwich layer' dilemma. On one hand, although crude oil prices have lost upward momentum due to repeated situations in the Middle East, they remain at relatively high levels, providing cost support for PTA and ethylene glycol. On the other hand, the recovery of terminal textile and apparel demand is weak, especially for foreign trade orders, which are affected by high overseas inventories, resulting in limited increments. The intermediate link of polyester filament yarn is constrained by both upstream costs and downstream demand, severely compressing profit margins. It is worth noting that in emerging markets such as India, extreme high temperatures and other factors have led to a reduction in textile industry jobs, further weakening the global textile demand outlook.
Future Trend: Short-Term Stalemate, Medium-Term Pressure
From an operational perspective, the polyester filament market in early July is likely to continue the pattern of 'neither high nor low'. Upstream polyester factories have not yet reached a critical point of inventory pressure and will continue to wait and see with stable prices in the short term. Downstream users will maintain a just-in-time procurement strategy and will not easily replenish inventory. However, if the sales ratio remains sluggish for more than a week, some enterprises may resort to hidden price cuts or promotional discounts to alleviate inventory pressure. For buyers, the current period is not the best time to build inventory; it is recommended to maintain low inventory turnover and wait for a price correction window.