The polyester filament yarn market in early July is alarmingly sluggish. On July 3, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 33%, up just 1.3 percentage points from the previous day. This means that for every 100 tons of filament produced, only 33 tons found buyers. Against the backdrop of a traditional off-season and high-capacity operations, this figure is not just a short-term sentiment indicator but a microcosm of the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial chain.
Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the specific sample data, the distribution of sales ratios among over 20 enterprises is extremely uneven. Only one company achieved a 200% ratio, while the vast majority fell between 15% and 40%. Low values such as 0%, 10%, and 15% appeared frequently, indicating that some manufacturers had almost zero transactions that day. Enterprises with a sales ratio below 30% accounted for more than 60%, a rare occurrence in the same period over the past three years.
A sales ratio persistently below 40% means that inventory is accumulating at a rate exceeding 60% of monthly production. As a core midstream product in the chemical fiber chain, the sales ratio of polyester filament directly reflects the efficiency of demand transmission from weaving to dyeing and finishing to apparel and home textiles. The current low sales are not a management issue of a single company but a collective reflection of declining weaving mill operating rates and insufficient orders.
Price Game and Divergent Manufacturer Sentiment
Faced with persistently low sales data, polyester filament manufacturers have not taken unified action. Some have chosen to lower local quotes to stimulate shipments, but more are still waiting. This divergence stems from two factors: first, upstream raw material costs—PTA and MEG prices remain high, squeezing the profit margins of filament producers; second, uncertainty about the future—if price cuts fail to boost volume, they would only accelerate losses.
The purchasing logic of downstream weaving mills is also changing. The speculative stockpiling model of 'buying on rising prices' is being replaced by a cautious strategy of 'purchasing on demand, producing based on orders.' Even essential restocking is done in small, short-term orders to avoid inventory risk. This price negotiation between upstream and downstream has reached a stalemate: upstream is reluctant to cut prices, downstream is unwilling to buy, and transactions remain sluggish.
Capacity Cycle and Demand Mismatch
From a longer-term perspective, the current low sales ratio is not accidental. From 2022 to 2023, domestic polyester filament capacity experienced a round of concentrated expansion, with new capacity being released gradually. However, end demand—whether domestic apparel and home textiles or foreign textile and garment exports—has not kept pace with capacity growth. The double pressure of oversupply and weak demand has pushed down the center of the sales ratio.
This mismatch directly leads to high inventory. The average inventory days of sample enterprises have risen from about 15 days at the beginning of the year to over 25 days, with some exceeding 30 days. High inventory ties up capital, increases storage costs, and squeezes cash flow. Once the capital chain comes under pressure, some small and medium-sized manufacturers may be forced to cut production or sell off at lower prices, triggering a new round of price wars.
Foreign Trade: Fragmented Orders and Exchange Rate Volatility
For textile companies focused on foreign trade, the current market environment is even more complex. On one hand, replenishment demand from European and American markets has not yet clearly recovered, and orders from emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and South Asia are also fragmented and short-cycle. On the other hand, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate add uncertainty to pricing and settlement.
As a raw material for textile fabrics, the price fluctuation of polyester filament directly affects the cost accounting of export orders. The current inventory pressure caused by low sales ratios may prompt some manufacturers to actively lower prices to secure foreign orders. But the room for price cuts is limited—raw material costs, energy costs, and environmental costs are all rising, and companies must find a difficult balance between 'securing orders' and 'protecting profits.'
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Focus on essential purchases in the short term and avoid large-scale stockpiling. Prices are currently in a bargaining phase; waiting 2-3 weeks may reveal clearer signals of price cuts. - Monitor the price trends of upstream raw materials (PTA, MEG). If raw material prices soften, filament prices have room to fall further. - Establish flexible pricing mechanisms with suppliers, such as 'raw material cost-linked pricing,' to reduce the risk of unilateral price fluctuations.
For Exporters - Build in room for exchange rate fluctuations when taking orders, using forward settlement or hedging tools to manage risk. - Proactively negotiate price adjustment clauses with downstream customers, incorporating raw material price fluctuations into contract discussions. - Keep an eye on demand changes in Southeast Asian and South Asian markets. If local weaving mill operating rates recover, it could drive some raw material export demand.
Every low sales ratio in the chemical fiber market is a prelude to a reshuffling of the industrial chain. For well-prepared companies, structural opportunities can be found even in the depths of winter.