The average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 31.7% on July 2, a sharp decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, less than 32 tons were actually purchased by downstream buyers. The industry typically considers 50% as the breakeven point for sales, and 31.7% already falls into the typical 'de-stocking pressure zone.'
More notably, despite such a low sales rate, the cash flow of polyester filament remains at a high level. This divergence between 'high profits and low transactions' reveals a core contradiction: upstream factories are reluctant to reduce prices and give up profits, while downstream weaving enterprises refuse to accept high-priced goods. The market has fallen into a typical 'price tug-of-war' state.
Market Signals Behind the Data
Looking at the specific sales data for the day, the differentiation among sample enterprises is extremely obvious. A few enterprises achieved sales rates of 60% and 70%, but most were concentrated in the 15% to 35% range, with two enterprises even reporting zero sales. This 'ice and fire' pattern reflects huge differences in inventory management and pricing strategies among polyester filament factories of different scales and customer structures.
Enterprises with zero sales rates either priced far above downstream psychological expectations, leading to no inquiries, or actively chose to 'hold and wait.' Enterprises with relatively higher sales rates managed to maintain shipments only through small price concessions or binding long-term customers. Overall, the market lacks active buying orders, with downstream procurement mainly focused on 'rigid demand small orders, buy-as-you-go.'
Why High Cash Flow is Unsustainable
The high cash flow of polyester filament is mainly supported by relatively stable upstream raw material prices (PTA, MEG), while the ex-factory price of polyester filament has not been lowered correspondingly. However, the problem is that this 'cost support' is being gradually eroded by downstream 'demand resistance.'
For downstream weaving enterprises, current polyester filament prices are at a relatively high level for the year, while terminal apparel orders have not seen significant volume increases. The foreign trade market is affected by exchange rate fluctuations and overseas destocking, with slow execution of new orders; the domestic market is facing the traditional summer off-season, with weaving machine operating rates generally at 60% to 70%. In an environment of 'no orders to take' or 'dare not take orders,' weaving factories would rather reduce operating rates than hoard polyester filament at high prices.
This means that the 'high cash flow' of upstream factories is actually based on a 'priced but unsold' situation. Once terminal demand continues to be weak, inventory pressure will force factories to lower prices. Historically, when the polyester filament sales rate remains below 40% for a week, it often triggers a price drop of 5% to 8% within two weeks.
Turning Point in the Industrial Chain Game
The current chemical fiber industry chain is at a delicate turning point. Upstream PTA and MEG supply sides have expectations of maintenance and production cuts, theoretically supporting polyester filament costs, but the 'negative feedback' from downstream demand is accelerating transmission.
From the perspective of regional industrial clusters, weaving enterprises in major polyester filament consumption areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are generally adopting a 'low inventory, fast turnover' strategy. Some enterprises have even compressed raw material inventory days to 3-5 days, far below the normal 7-10 days. This 'de-stocking' procurement behavior further exacerbates the difficulty of polyester filament factories in shipping goods.
It is worth noting that July is the traditional off-season for textiles, and the stocking period for the 'golden September and silver October' will not begin until late August. This means that for the next 4-6 weeks, the polyester filament market will likely maintain a 'buyer-dominated' pattern. If upstream factories do not proactively adjust pricing strategies, the sales rate may further decline below 25%.