In early July, the polyester filament market saw sluggish transactions, with the average sales-to-output ratio for sampled enterprises plunging to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This data implies that most manufacturers sold less than 40% of their capacity, and inventory pressure is quietly building. Downstream users are strongly resistant to current list prices, and procurement has retreated entirely to essential needs, pushing the price standoff into a critical stage.
A Closer Look at Sales Data: Significant Regional and Firm-Level Divergence
Publicly available sample sales data reveals stark performance differences among enterprises. On the day, sales-to-output ratios ranged from 0% to 85%, with more than half of the sampled firms reporting ratios below 30%. The few firms achieving ratios of 60–85% likely benefit from specific customer bases or flexible trading strategies, but overall market sentiment remains bearish. This divergence highlights that suppliers with stable end-user clients or differentiated product lines demonstrate significantly stronger resilience during price stalemates.
Cost-Demand Tug-of-War: Stalled Crude Oil and Cautious Downstream
The key support for polyester filament prices comes from upstream crude oil and PX (paraxylene) costs. Recent international crude oil prices have lost upward momentum due to repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, failing to provide clear direction for the polyester chain. Weakened cost support, combined with insufficient orders and high finished goods inventories among downstream textile mills, has made weaving mills increasingly cautious about raw material procurement. Industry public data indicates that downstream users do have demand, but they are waiting for lower entry prices—the classic 'buy on rising, not on falling' psychology that exacerbates wait-and-see behavior when prices are stable or slightly declining.
Industrial Transmission: Chain Reaction from Polyester to Weaving
The low sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament directly reflects the weakness in final textile and apparel consumption. As an intermediate link, polyester plants face a dilemma: proactively cutting prices to destock may trigger further downstream waiting for lower points, leading to only a temporary rebound in sales before another decline; conversely, holding prices firm will cause inventory carrying costs to rise daily, potentially forcing production cuts. For weaving clusters in Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshao, slower raw material procurement implies downside risk for operating rates, which will subsequently affect the supply stability of grey fabrics and finished textiles.
Procurement Strategy at a Crossroads: Essential Buying vs. Speculative Stocking
The current market is in a classic 'price tug-of-war.' For buyers, maintaining ultra-low inventory can hedge against price drops, but if polyester plants jointly cut production or crude oil suddenly rebounds, they may face a sharp rise in restocking costs. Conversely, moderate stocking during low sales periods can leverage sellers' pressure to secure better trading terms. Foreign trade enterprises need to monitor exchange rate fluctuations and overseas order delivery schedules to avoid delays caused by postponed raw material procurement.