On July 3rd, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 33.0%, up a marginal 1.3 percentage points from the previous day. But among the sample data, one enterprise recorded a ratio of 200%, while the lowest was 0%—this extreme divergence is far more alarming than the average itself.
The Temperature Gap Behind the Data
A 200% production-sales ratio means the enterprise sold twice its daily output. Against a backdrop of generally weak market transactions, such a localized spike is more likely a coincidental resonance of price cuts by the manufacturer and urgent restocking by downstream buyers. Meanwhile, most sample enterprises reported ratios between 15% and 40%, with nearly one-third below 20%.
Polyester filament yarn producers have clearly diverged in their strategies. Some have chosen to lower prices to free up cash flow, while others insist on maintaining prices. This strategic split has directly led to a polarized market: price-cutting firms attracted orders briefly, but failed to revive overall demand.
From the supply chain perspective, downstream weaving mills continue to procure on a need-only basis, showing no intention to build inventory. Industry data indicates that loom operating rates remain low, and terminal orders have not seen a significant uptick. This suggests that the current low production-sales ratio is not a short-term fluctuation but a true reflection of weak demand.
Price Game Enters a Critical Phase
Crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum, and repeated tensions in the Middle East have failed to push energy costs higher. Weakened cost support puts polyester filament yarn prices under greater downward pressure. Meanwhile, extreme heat in India is expected to reduce the country's textile industry by 34 million jobs by 2030, quietly reshaping the global textile supply chain.
For domestic chemical fiber enterprises, competition from overseas substitution and cost pressures is intensifying. Some orders may shift from India to Southeast Asia or China due to climate impacts, but such transfers are often short-term and small-batch, offering limited stimulus for polyester filament yarn demand.
The upstream and downstream are locked in a price tug-of-war: upstream polyester plants face rising inventory pressure but are reluctant to offer deep discounts; downstream weaving mills, with insufficient orders, are extremely cautious in procurement. This deadlock is unlikely to break soon without clear signals from the cost or demand side.