On July 2, 2026, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) among sample enterprises fell to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of PFY produced, less than 32 tons were sold. Market sentiment was sluggish, with actual transactions scarce, and industry data shows persistent resistance from downstream users.
Structural Imbalance Under High Cash Flow
Current PFY cash flow remains elevated, but this profit expansion has not translated into market vitality. Instead, high margins have intensified the tug-of-war between upstream polyester plants and downstream weaving mills. Upstream factories tend to maintain high offer prices to lock in profits, while downstream mills, squeezed by costs, choose to wait and see. The sales ratio data from 25 sample enterprises shows a highly dispersed distribution: the lowest was 0%, the highest only 70%, with most values clustered between 20% and 35%. This suggests a lack of unified procurement rhythm, with significant variations in inventory and order status across companies.
Notably, at least two sample enterprises reported a 0% sales ratio, meaning zero sales for the entire day. For a continuous production industry like chemical fibers, consecutive zero sales directly pressure cash flow and inventory turnover. Meanwhile, even the highest ratio of 70% falls well short of the usual 80% health line, indicating that weak demand is not an isolated phenomenon.
Logic Behind Downstream Resistance
The root cause of downstream resistance is the broken transmission chain between PFY prices and end-demand for fabrics and garments. Although upstream raw material (PTA, MEG) price fluctuations affect PFY costs, the current high cash flow stems more from polyester plants' price-supporting strategies than from real demand. Weaving mills face a double squeeze: high PFY procurement costs on one side, and limited price increases for grey fabrics and finished textiles on the other, compressing their profit margins.
Across industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (such as Shaoxing, Wujiang, Changxing), mills are generally reducing operating rates or delaying replenishment. Some small and medium enterprises have even chosen to halt production temporarily to avoid inventory devaluation risks from high-priced raw materials. This "wait-and-see" mentality further suppresses any recovery in the sales ratio.
Implications for Procurement Decisions
The sales-to-production ratio is a core leading indicator of chemical fiber market balance. A reading of 31.7% is not only below the 50% breakeven line but has also declined for two consecutive days (from 35.8% the previous day), suggesting limited momentum for a near-term rebound. For buyers, this is not an ideal window for large-scale replenishment: high cash flow implies that polyester plants still have room to offer discounts, while low downstream sales ratios indicate slow inventory digestion, and a market rebalance will take time.
Historically, a sales ratio below 30% is often followed by price easing or promotional policies. Early July falls in the traditional off-season for textiles, combined with seasonal factors like high-temperature power curbs, the PFY market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile range for the next two weeks.