On July 1, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises plummeted to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure directly signals the weakening of downstream purchasing intentions, with market sentiment hitting a freezing point. As manufacturers attempt to stabilize ex-factory prices, user-side 'high-price aversion' has formed a formidable barrier.
What the Sales Data Reveals
Specific sales data released on the day showed extreme divergence: the highest rate reached 85%, while the lowest was 0%. Among the 24 surveyed enterprises, more than half recorded sales rates below 30%, with some even reporting zero transactions. This 'fire and ice' scenario is not accidental but a typical characteristic of the chemical fiber industry entering a deep game period.
Historically, July is a traditional off-season for the textile industry, with downstream weaving mill operating rates naturally declining. However, a 35.8% average sales rate means inventory is visibly accumulating upstream. For polyester plants, this is not just a cash flow pressure but may force subsequent production cuts or price reductions.
The Tug-of-War Between Costs and Demand
The core contradiction in the current chemical fiber market lies in crude oil prices losing upward momentum amid repeated Middle East tensions, while textile end-demand has not materialized as expected. Although upstream PTA and MEG cost support remains, when transmitted to the polyester filament yarn link, downstream users are clearly unwilling to pay for high-priced raw materials.
This price stalemate stems from imbalanced profit distribution along the chain. Polyester plants try to hold prices under cost pressure, but weaving mills themselves face insufficient orders, and export markets are also threatened by factors such as extreme heat in India—industry research projects that India's textile industry could lose 34 million jobs by 2030, further compressing global textile consumption space.
Ripple Effects Across Industrial Clusters
As major domestic chemical fiber clusters, weaving mills in Shengze, Keqiao, and Changxing have begun adjusting their procurement rhythms. The July 1 sales data directly confirms contraction signals in these industrial belts: the traditional twice-monthly concentrated replenishment cycle is being replaced by a 'buy-as-you-go' zero-order strategy.
For polyester plants, this shift means the traditional 'production-based sales' model is completely invalidated. When downstream inventory management shifts from 'safety stock' to 'extreme turnover', upstream enterprises must reassess the balance between capacity utilization and inventory turnover days.
Market Expectations: Differentiation and Restructuring
Notably, the 'Chemical Fiber Evening News' series published simultaneously suggests that sales data for July 2 and 3 may remain sluggish. This sustained weakness is changing market participants' expectations: traders are reducing spot positions, and some small polyester plants have reported maintenance plans.
From a broader perspective, this adjustment is essentially a correction to the over-expansion of the chemical fiber industry over the past two years. In 2025, domestic new polyester capacity exceeded 6 million tons, while end-consumption growth lagged far behind. As 'de-stocking' becomes industry consensus, price wars may be inevitable, but what truly determines winners will be companies' ability to manage cash flow and customer relationships.