On July 2, trading sentiment in the polyester filament market hit a low. Industry public data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous day. This means nearly 70% of capacity failed to convert into actual sales, inventory pressure is being transmitted to upstream polyester plants.
Market Sentiment Behind Sales Data
From the specific data of 25 sample companies disclosed that day, the divergence is clear. The two lowest companies had zero sales rates, while the highest only reached 70%, with most companies falling in the 15% to 35% range. This 'middle-heavy, two-ends-light' distribution reflects the extreme caution of downstream weaving companies in procurement decisions.
Notably, despite low sales, the cash flow of polyester filament remains high. Ample cash flow is usually a sign of healthy industry profitability, but in the current context, it has become a key variable suppressing downstream purchasing intentions. Downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials continues to accumulate, and the market is stuck in a deadlock where 'sellers won't lower prices, buyers won't buy'.
Double-Edged Sword Effect of High Cash Flow
From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission logic, the high cash flow of polyester filament mainly stems from the temporary stability of upstream PTA and MEG costs and the insistence of polyester plants on pricing strategies. However, this 'cost support + price-holding' combination actually accelerates the decline in sales-to-production ratios when demand-side is weak.
For weaving enterprises, high cash flow means raw material prices are at relatively high levels, while their own end-order recovery is not obvious. In this context, companies tend to consume existing inventory or maintain just-in-time purchases, rather than large-scale stockpiling. This 'buy-as-you-use' strategy directly leads to consecutive declines in the sales-to-production ratio.
From a regional industrial belt perspective, the operating rates of weaving enterprises in major polyester filament consumption areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan generally remain at 60% to 70%, but new orders are mainly short-term and small-lot, lacking sustainability. This further confirms that the weakness in downstream demand is not a short-term fluctuation but a continuation of structural adjustments.
Price Tug-of-War and Outlook
The current polyester filament market is in a price tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Upstream polyester plants face rising inventory pressure but have limited room for price cuts due to high cash flow; downstream weaving companies insist on low-inventory operations, waiting for a more favorable procurement window.
From external factors, crude oil prices have recently lost upward momentum. Although the Middle East situation remains volatile, it has not caused substantial supply disruptions. This means there is no further catalyst for PTA cost increases. If crude oil prices remain range-bound, the cost support for polyester filament may weaken, potentially forcing polyester plants to adjust pricing strategies.
On the other hand, terminal textile and apparel export data has not shown significant improvement, and signals of overseas order recovery are unclear. This implies that downstream demand recovery will be gradual, not a V-shaped reversal.