On July 1, 2026, China's chemical fiber market posted a sobering report card: the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means more than 60% of production capacity failed to translate into actual transactions, signaling severe demand contraction pressure.
What the Data Reveals
According to publicly disclosed data from sample enterprises, the sales-to-production ratios on that day were extremely uneven: the top two companies achieved 60% and 85% respectively, but more than half of the companies hovered between 20% and 35%, with two companies recording zero transactions. This extreme divergence indicates that the market is not experiencing a broad-based downturn but rather a 'head concentration' effect — a few enterprises with cost advantages or brand premiums can still maintain some shipment volume, while most small and medium-sized producers face inventory overhang.
Notably, although polyester filament manufacturers adjusted their list prices on that day, actual transaction prices remained largely stable. This 'apparent adjustment but real stability' operation reflects manufacturers' ambivalence: they want to test market acceptance but are unwilling to make real concessions. Downstream users' resistance to high prices is not unfounded — with terminal weaving orders showing no clear recovery, any raw material price increase directly compresses the already thin processing margins.
The Broken Profit Transmission Chain
The core contradiction in today's chemical fiber market lies in the 'profit gap' between the cost side and the demand side. Upstream PTA and MEG are still supported by international crude oil price fluctuations, but midstream polyester filament producers, in order to maintain operating rates, have to bear the pressure of rising raw material costs without being able to pass them downstream.
This 'neither high nor low' situation ultimately hurts the liquidity of the entire supply chain. Weaving enterprises adopt a 'produce-to-purchase' strategy, maintaining only minimum raw material inventory and shifting financial pressure upstream. Polyester filament manufacturers, in turn, face the dual challenges of rising inventory and tightening cash flow. If this stalemate persists, some small and medium-sized capacity may be forced to cut or even halt production in the third quarter.
Regional Industrial Cluster Reactions
From a regional perspective, chemical fiber clusters in Xiaoshan (Zhejiang), Shaoxing, and Shengze (Jiangsu) are the direct pressure zones of this sales decline. These areas concentrate a large number of small and medium-sized chemical fiber enterprises and weaving mills, where credit-based transactions between upstream and downstream chains account for a high proportion. Once the sales-to-production ratio stays below 40% for an extended period, corporate payment terms will be forced to extend, and the risk of capital chain rupture will increase exponentially.
For buyers, while the current market is enhancing their bargaining power, it also brings the risk of supplier credit deterioration. Choosing a supplier with healthy cash flow and fast inventory turnover is more important than simply pursuing low prices.