On the first full trading day of July, trading data for the polyester filament market revealed the industry's true colors in the off-season. On July 3, the average production-sales ratio of sample enterprises stood at 33.0%, only a slight increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. Although marginally improved, this figure remains within the industry-recognized sluggish range. More notably, pricing strategies among manufacturers have clearly diverged—some have opted to lower prices in an attempt to boost volumes, while others insist on holding prices and waiting. This divergence itself is the most direct signal of a lack of consensus in the market.
Structural Divergence Behind Sales Data
Looking at the specific production-sales data released for 24 sample enterprises on that day, the distribution is extremely uneven. The lowest performers recorded rates of just 0%, 10%, and 15%, while the highest reached 200%. This 'fire and ice' scenario is no accident. Enterprises with rates exceeding 100% typically captured concentrated orders or accumulated replenishment demand, but the sustainability of these orders is questionable. The majority of enterprises, with rates concentrated between 15% and 40%, reflect that downstream weaving factories are generally cautious in their purchasing, only replenishing as needed without any signs of proactive stockpiling.
This structural divergence is essentially a product of intensifying game-playing along the chemical fiber industry chain. Upstream polyester filament manufacturers face the dual pressure of high inventory and cost support, while downstream weaving enterprises seek a balance between insufficient end-order demand and volatile raw material prices. When the terminal apparel and home textile markets enter their traditional off-season, the demand transmitted to the fabric procurement stage naturally contracts, prompting weaving mills to keep raw material inventories at the lowest safe level.
Logic Behind Manufacturers' Divergent Mindsets
The divergence in pricing adjustments essentially reflects different strategies adopted by enterprises of varying scales and financial strengths to cope with market pressure. Large chemical fiber companies typically have longer industrial chains and stronger financial buffers, so during periods of weak demand, they are more inclined to support prices to maintain profit margins, even proactively reducing production to adjust market supply. In contrast, small and medium manufacturers, facing greater cash flow pressure and weaker customer loyalty, are more likely to cut prices to compete for limited orders, even if it means short-term losses.
This strategic disparity is amplified during the off-season. Historical data shows that June-July is typically the traditional off-season for the chemical fiber market, but the production-sales ratio at the start of July 2026 is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. This implies that, even without considering external macro factors, judging solely from the industry's own cycle, there is little momentum for a significant rebound in polyester filament prices in the short term. For buyers, this paradoxically offers a relatively comfortable window for negotiation.
Implications for Upstream and Downstream Procurement and Inventory Management
Given the current market conditions, enterprises in different roles need to adopt differentiated response strategies. For downstream weaving and fabric companies, the core logic of raw material procurement should shift from 'chasing gains and hoarding' to 'rolling replenishment based on demand.' Given that price gaps between manufacturers may widen, it is advisable for procurement teams to establish a broader network of supplier inquiries, focusing on enterprises with low production-sales ratios and a willingness to lower prices, in order to secure better procurement costs.
For chemical fiber manufacturers, especially small and medium ones, pure price competition is unsustainable. A more rational approach is to moderately adjust product portfolios, shifting towards differentiated, high value-added varieties to avoid the price red ocean of bulk standard products. Simultaneously, strengthening long-term agreement bindings with core customers can smooth out off-season production and sales fluctuations through stable order volumes.