On July 2, 2026, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plummeted to 31.7%, a drop of 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of filament produced that day, fewer than 32 tons were actually sold. More alarmingly, while the sales ratio remains sluggish, polyester filament cash flow stays at historically high levels—a rare 'volume-price divergence' is playing out across the supply chain.
The High Cash Flow Trap: Profit vs. Liquidity
Industry data shows that on July 2, only 2 out of 25 sample enterprises achieved a sales-to-production ratio above 50%, while 7 firms recorded ratios of zero or below 15%. This distribution indicates not isolated order gaps but a systemic liquidity drought in the polyester filament market.
High cash flow stems from relatively stable upstream feedstock prices (PTA, MEG) versus firm polyester product prices, widening profit margins. However, high margins have not translated into high transaction volumes. Downstream weaving mills, facing sustained high raw material costs, have adopted a 'just-in-time, buy-as-needed' strategy, actively compressing inventory cycles. This 'high profit + low sales' combination essentially reflects an imbalance in profit distribution along the chain.
Downstream Resistance: Cost Tolerance Nears Breaking Point
From the sales ratio distribution, actual transactions were scarce, and downstream user resistance remained strong. Weaving mills face a core dilemma: terminal garment orders have not surged, grey fabric prices cannot keep pace with cost increases, and raw material costs cannot be smoothly passed downstream.
In weaving clusters like Jiangsu and Zhejiang, operating rates remain moderate, but new orders are dominated by short-run, small-lot transactions lacking continuity. Under these conditions, mills have extremely low tolerance for high-priced raw materials, preferring to reduce operating rates or extend restocking cycles rather than accept high-priced goods. This 'voting with their feet' behavior directly drives the continuous decline in polyester filament sales ratios.
Price Outlook: Short-Term Gridlock, Medium-Term Correction Risk
The core tension in today's polyester filament market is that upstream polyester plants, buoyed by decent cash flow, have little incentive to cut prices significantly, while downstream weaving mills, squeezed by costs, refuse to chase high prices. If this stalemate persists, inventory pressure will gradually shift from downstream to upstream.
Historically, when the sales-to-production ratio stays below 40% for more than a week, polyester plants typically initiate price cuts to destock. The July 2 data has already touched this threshold. If ratios do not improve in coming days, polyester filament prices face a correction, with the magnitude depending on PTA cost support.
Chain Transmission: From Chemical Fiber to Fabric in Foreign Trade
The low polyester filament sales ratio has a lagged impact on textile foreign trade. Current procurement caution means weaving mills will have reduced available inventory over the next 1-2 months. If terminal demand picks up, a temporary raw material shortage could emerge, pushing up fabric prices. Conversely, if end-demand remains weak, mills will accelerate destocking, further suppressing filament demand.
For foreign trade firms, current raw material prices are relatively high, but production margins have been compressed. It is recommended to monitor consecutive sales ratio data: if the ratio recovers above 50% for three consecutive days, it could signal a procurement window.