The Stalemate in Polyester Filament: A Thousand-Yuan Gap with Crude Oil Amid High Cash Flow and Weak Demand

International crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-Middle East crisis levels, but polyester filament yarn remains nearly 1,000 yuan per ton higher. This divergence between upstream and downstream prices has pushed the polyester chain into a rare stalemate. On June 24, WTI crude oil briefly dipped below $70 per barrel, returning to levels seen before the escalation of the Middle East situation. Although prices rebounded slightly on June 25 due to renewed tensions, they hovered around $70 again on June 26. Meanwhile, polyester filament yarn prices are still about 1,000 yuan per ton higher than before the crisis. This gap is not merely a lag in price transmission. From the futures side, PTA and ethylene glycol have largely returned to their original levels, significantly weakening cost support for polyester raw materials. However, polyester filament prices have not followed suit, reflecting an active price management strategy by polyester mills. Industry data shows that the cash flow of polyester filament is currently at a multi-year high. But this apparent high profit margin masks the actual inventory pressure faced by polyester mills. Current inventory levels stand at around 30 days for POY, 35.7 days for FDY, and 41.8 days for DTY. Most of these stocks were produced when raw material costs were higher; selling at lower prices would turn paper profits into real losses. Consequently, polyester mills are maintaining price stability through low operating rates. On June 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic direct-spun polyester filament equipment was 73.81%, a slight increase of 0.29% from the previous week but still at a three-year low. With low production loads, mills face little pressure to offload inventory and prefer gradual price reductions. For weaving enterprises, the large price gap signals significant downside risk. Delaying purchases by a month could save hundreds or even thousands of yuan per ton of raw materials, while the final product price remains unchanged. As a result, weavers have adopted a "buy only when necessary" stance, limiting purchases to essential orders. This wait-and-see attitude further weakens demand for polyester filament, creating a vicious cycle: the less mills are willing to cut prices, the more weavers delay purchases. The supply-demand imbalance and weak domestic demand are the root causes of this divergence. The summer season is typically a peak period for sun-protection fabrics, but unusually cool weather has delayed the start of this market, further depressing polyester filament consumption. However, there are signs of a turnaround. With the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, global crude oil and commodity trade is gradually normalizing. Multiple overseas economies are accelerating their recovery, which could boost international textile consumption and support China's textile exports. Increased export orders may partially offset weak domestic demand and alleviate downward pressure on polyester filament. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply-demand dynamics and high price gaps in the polyester chain is likely to persist. The tug-of-war between polyester mills and weavers will continue to dominate market trends. For buyers, current prices are not a safe entry point; close attention should be paid to inventory digestion and changes in export orders. For procurement teams, maintain a just-in-time purchasing strategy, avoiding stockpiling at high price gaps, and monitor polyester mill inventory changes and cash flow trends. For foreign trade companies, use the current weak domestic demand window to strengthen overseas market development, especially in regions with faster economic recovery. Negotiate flexible price clauses with upstream suppliers to transfer some raw material risk to downstream orders, reducing exposure to single market fluctuations.