The chemical fiber market in early July opened with a stark set of data: the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises stood at only 35.8%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of PFY produced, fewer than 36 tons found buyers. While manufacturers did adjust their list prices, actual transaction prices remained largely stable, failing to stimulate downstream purchasing interest.
What the Sales Data Signals
Looking at the distribution of sales ratios among sample enterprises, the figures were highly dispersed: the highest reached 85%, while the lowest was zero. However, the majority of companies fell within the 20%-40% range, with numbers like 30%, 35%, 40%, 30%, and 20% appearing frequently. This 'thick middle, thin ends' distribution indicates a lack of broad transaction hotspots, with only a few companies securing orders for specific products or from particular clients.
More concerning is that a significant number of enterprises reported sales ratios below 20%. This is not an isolated operational issue but a sign of sector-wide demand contraction. Downstream weaving and texturizing companies have adopted a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, showing extremely low willingness to stock up. Once this 'rigid demand procurement' model becomes the norm, it will put continuous pressure on upstream polyester plants' inventory management.
The Deeper Reasons for the Price Stalemate
The current deadlock in the PFY market is essentially a game between cost and demand. On the upstream side, crude oil prices have fluctuated due to the volatile situation in the Middle East but have not formed a sustained upward momentum. Cost support from raw materials like PX and PTA remains relatively limited. On the downstream side, the recovery of terminal textile and garment orders has been slower than expected. Uncertainties in the foreign trade sector persist, leading to sluggish capacity utilization rates in the weaving segment.
In this context, chemical fiber factories have tried to test the market by adjusting list prices, but with little effect. Downstream users' instinctive resistance to high prices, coupled with their slow destocking of finished goods, makes them prefer to wait rather than chase price increases. This 'the higher the price, the less the buying' mentality precisely reflects the current imbalance in profit distribution along the supply chain—upstream wants to protect margins, while downstream demands concessions.
Transmission Effects on Industrial Clusters and Inventory Cycles
From a regional perspective, the data from sample enterprises in major PFY producing areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are highly representative. The overall decline in sales ratios suggests that the operating rates of weaving companies in these clusters may also be under pressure. Typically, if the sales ratio remains below 50% for more than a week, it triggers production cuts or maintenance plans at polyester plants to control inventory levels.
It is worth noting that July is traditionally a slack season for textiles. High temperatures, coupled with potential power rationing in some regions, will further suppress downstream demand. If the sales ratio cannot recover above 50% within the next two weeks, the industry may face a new round of active destocking, which could intensify price competition.