On July 2, 2026, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plunged to 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, fewer than 32 tons were actually sold, with inventories piling up at mills.
Behind the Sales Data: Industry Signals
Data from 25 sample enterprises reveal a highly uneven distribution: the highest ratio reached 70%, the lowest was 0%, and the median hovered around 20%. Specifically, only a few firms recorded ratios of 60% or 70%, while more than half clustered in the 20%-30% range, and two mills reported zero sales.
This structural divergence highlights a key fact: even in a sluggish market, companies with stronger customer loyalty and order-taking capabilities still outperform. But the bigger concern is that the 31.7% overall ratio has remained low for consecutive days, signaling a trend rather than a blip.
High Cash Flow vs. Downstream Resistance
Polyester filament cash flow remains elevated, meaning upstream cost transmission has been relatively smooth, and polyester mills still enjoy decent margins. However, downstream weaving and texturing enterprises are pushing back—resistance is growing, trading sentiment is cold, and actual transactions are scarce.
This 'upstream wants to raise prices, downstream refuses to accept' scenario is essentially a tug-of-war over profit distribution along the chain. High cash flow is usually a positive signal, but without real demand support, it becomes a barrier to transactions. For buyers, the cost of waiting is far lower than chasing high prices.
Regional Industrial Belt Effects
Key consumption hubs for polyester filament—Shaoxing, Xiaoshan, Shengze, Changle—are feeling the pinch. When the sales ratio falls below 35%, local weaving mills typically prioritize using their own inventory rather than placing new orders.
Historically, when the ratio stays below 40% for a week, polyester mills often resort to production cuts or discounts. That threshold has been breached, so if the trend persists, prices may see a corrective decline.
Deep Logic: Price Stalemate
The chemical fiber chain is caught in a sensitive period. Crude oil prices lack clear direction, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East haven't triggered a sustained supply shock. Meanwhile, end-user garment export orders remain weak due to inventory cycles abroad.
This means polyester prices lack both a cost anchor and volume support. A stalemate is likely until one side blinks—either upstream cuts prices to move inventory, or downstream accepts current levels out of necessity.