On July 2, the polyester filament yarn market sentiment hit a low point. The average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 31.7%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 32 tons were successfully sold, and inventory pressure is accelerating.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the specific sales data of sample enterprises, the divergence trend is obvious. The extreme range varies from 0% to 70%, with more than half of the enterprises having a sales ratio below 30%, and two enterprises even recorded zero sales for the day. This widespread sluggishness is no coincidence—polyester filament yarn cash flows remain high, upstream manufacturers are strongly inclined to hold prices, but downstream users are equally resistant to current price levels, leading to a stalemate.
A noteworthy detail is that the enterprise with a 70% sales ratio is in the minority, while most companies fall within the 15%-35% range. This indicates that not all enterprises face the same difficulty, but the industry as a whole has entered a typical buyer's market. For chemical fiber plants, high cash flows may seem profitable on paper, but they are actually eroding liquidity—unsold products mean inventory carrying costs will gradually eat into book profits.
Deeper Logic of the Upstream-Downstream Game
The current market stalemate is essentially a mismatch in price expectations. Upstream polyester filament yarn companies, supported by raw material costs and their own cash flow advantages, are unwilling to cut prices proactively. Downstream weaving and texturing companies, burdened by weak end-order demand and high finished product inventories, adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy for high-priced raw materials.
From an industry chain perspective, this game is spreading to both ends. Price fluctuations in upstream PTA and MEG have not yet effectively transmitted to the polyester filament yarn end, while price increases in downstream grey fabrics and finished fabrics clearly lag behind, severely compressing the profit margins of weaving enterprises. If terminal garment export orders underperform expectations in the third quarter, downstream resistance could escalate into more significant production cuts, at which point the high inventory of polyester filament yarn would face concentrated selling pressure.
Practical Impact on Textile Enterprises
The continuous decline in the sales-to-production ratio indicates that the window for price adjustment in the chemical fiber market is narrowing. For buyers, the seemingly firm quoted prices may be just 'paper prices,' with actual transactions already having room for hidden discounts. For foreign trade companies, high raw material costs are eroding the competitiveness of export orders, especially against the backdrop of rapidly recovering textile production capacity in Southeast Asia.