35.8%. This was the average sales-to-output ratio of domestic polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on July 1, 2026, a further drop of 3 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data. Ahead of the traditional off-season in the textile industry, this number sends a sharper signal than it appears—downstream weaving mills' purchasing willingness has frozen, and chemical fiber manufacturers' price adjustments have become little more than a 'numbers game.'
Temperature Differences Behind Sales Data
Looking at the sales data from 24 sample enterprises released that day, extreme divergence is the most prominent feature. The highest sales rate reached 85%, but the lowest was 0%, with over one-third of enterprises at or below 20%. This 'ice and fire' situation directly reflects the market position differences among polyester filament yarn manufacturers of varying sizes and customer structures. Leading companies, backed by long-term contracts and stable relationships, can maintain some shipment volumes; small and medium-sized manufacturers reliant on the spot market face near-zero transactions.
More notably, this downturn is not a short-term fluctuation. The 35.8% sales rate is the result of a continuous decline, with downstream 'price resistance' still spreading. Industry public data shows that while manufacturers adjusted list prices, actual transaction prices remained stable, meaning upstream concessions have not genuinely moved buyers. Purchases are limited to rigid demand without any proactive stockpiling, fundamentally driven by expectations of further price declines.
Pricing Power Game Enters a New Phase
The core contradiction in the polyester filament yarn market has shifted from 'cost-push price hikes' to 'demand-suppressed stalemate.' Upstream raw material prices for PTA and MEG have fluctuated little recently, leaving limited room for significant price cuts in polyester filament yarn. However, downstream weaving mill operating rates are generally low, and terminal garment orders are shrinking due to weak global consumption, causing inventory pressure across the supply chain to accumulate upstream.
In this context, chemical fiber manufacturers' 'list price adjustments' are more of a gesture—attempting to stimulate buying with small concessions, but with little effect. Downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials essentially reflects a lack of confidence in future terminal demand. If this deadlock persists, manufacturers may face more substantial price cuts or be forced to reduce production to balance supply and demand. A similar situation occurred in the same period in 2025, when polyester filament yarn sales rates stayed below 40% for three consecutive weeks, eventually forcing several leading companies to jointly cut production by 10%-15%.
Regional Impact and Transmission
From a regional perspective, concentrated chemical fiber industrial areas like Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang Province, and Shengze in Jiangsu Province, are the direct bearers of this sales downturn. Weaving clusters in these regions are highly sensitive to polyester filament yarn prices, typically purchasing on order without holding inventory. With persistently low sales rates, the cash flow pressure on local small and medium-sized weaving enterprises is increasing—raw material procurement costs remain high, while finished grey fabric prices are difficult to pass on due to terminal price pressure.
For buyers, the current market environment presents both risks and opportunities. On one hand, raw material prices have room for further decline, and early stockpiling could face devaluation losses. On the other hand, if upstream production cuts materialize, supply contraction could trigger a phased rebound. The key lies in timing and pace judgment.