Polyester Filament Sales Plunge 30%: High Cash Flow Masks Demand Fracture Reshaping Weaving Procurement Logic

On July 2, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plunged to 31.7%, dropping another 4.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. Industry data also shows extreme divergence: among 25 sample companies, the highest ratio was 70%, the lowest was zero, and the median hovered around 20%. These numbers reveal a dangerous signal in the chemical fiber chain: high cash flow is masking a real demand fracture.

The Divergence: Cash Flow's 'Safety Illusion'

Polyester filament cash flow remains high, theoretically indicating ample profitability, but downstream resistance is rising simultaneously, with thin market transactions and scarce actual deals. This 'high profit, low turnover' pattern is structurally mismatched: upstream cost support remains firm, but weaving mills are unwilling to pay a premium for raw materials.

Looking at the specifics, only three sample companies recorded sales-to-production ratios above 50%, while over 15 fell below 20%, accounting for 60% of the total. This means that the price-support strategy of leading enterprises is not driving volume across the industry; most small and medium polyester filament factories are essentially 'priced but not selling.' For buyers, this divergence signals a key issue: when industry averages are inflated by a few high-performing companies, the true market temperature may be colder than the reports suggest.

The 'Triple Pressure' on Demand

The current polyester filament sales slump is not an isolated event but a concentrated manifestation of multiple pressures downstream in the textile chain.
- High weaving inventories: During the earlier raw material price rally, weaving mills stockpiled heavily and are still digesting those inventories, with extremely low willingness to make new purchases.
- Weak end-use apparel orders: Overseas major consumer markets are still in a destocking cycle, and domestic autumn/winter orders are slow to start, with fabric traders generally adopting a wait-and-see stance.
- Tightening cash flow: Small and medium weaving mills face cash flow pressure and are unwilling to leverage for stocking at high raw material prices.

These triple pressures make polyester filament's high cash flow a 'visible but untouchable' book profit. Once the cost side loosens—for example, if PTA or MEG prices correct—polyester filament prices may face a rapid catch-down, and traders and weaving mills with high inventories would suffer double losses.

Industrial Belt Reaction: From 'Chasing Rallies' to 'Waiting for Dips'

In chemical fiber clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, the procurement mindset of weaving enterprises has fundamentally shifted. Over the past six months, the market was accustomed to 'cost-push price hikes,' forcing downstream to follow; but early July data indicates this logic is failing.

In the Shengze area, some medium-sized weaving mills have compressed raw material inventory days from 30 to under 15, tightening procurement from 'on-demand' to 'spot replenishment only.' Meanwhile, speculative hoarding by traders has virtually disappeared, with the industry entering a 'destocking, wait for price drop' observation cycle.

The underlying reason for this shift: downstream price sensitivity now outweighs supply stability concerns. When high cash flow no longer corresponds to scarcity but to shrinking demand, price elasticity quickly shifts to a buyer's market.

Second-Half Outlook: Three Key Points for Supply-Demand Rebalancing

For the chemical fiber industry, the trajectory for the second half of 2026 depends on three key variables:
1. Cost-side inflection point: International oil price trends and the pace of new PX/PTA capacity will determine when cost support for polyester filament loosens.
2. End-user destocking progress: The pace of apparel retail destocking in Europe and the US, and the timing of domestic 'Double 11' orders, will directly impact weaving restocking rhythms.
3. Industry production discipline: If the sales-to-production ratio persistently stays below 40%, whether leading enterprises proactively cut production to support prices will be key to the short-term price floor.

Currently, the July-August traditional off-season combined with high inventories suggests polyester filament prices will likely remain weak and volatile. Genuine demand recovery may not come until September, when autumn/winter orders concentrate, but only if prices have adjusted to levels acceptable to weaving mills.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Avoid large-scale stocking at this stage; keep raw material inventory at 15-20 days' usage to prevent losses from price declines. - Monitor varieties with sales-to-production ratios below 40% for three consecutive days; these products may have larger bargaining room—try to lock in small batches at lower prices. - Negotiate short-term floating price contracts tied to PTA or MEG benchmarks to hedge against sudden cost-side changes.

For Exporters - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export order quotes; lock in raw material costs for 30 days to avoid profit erosion from domestic polyester filament price adjustments. - Track weaving capacity changes in Southeast Asia—if domestic polyester filament prices drop, it may weaken the cost advantage of Southeast Asian textiles, benefiting China's fabric export competitiveness. - Use the current low-sales period to negotiate more flexible payment terms or rebate policies with upstream suppliers to secure cash flow support.