On July 1, trading activity in the polyester filament yarn market hit a recent low. According to public data from China's chemical fiber industry, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample polyester filament yarn enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. Among 24 sample enterprises, two reported zero sales, and more than half had ratios below 30%. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only about 36 tons were actually sold, with nearly two-thirds turning into inventory.
Supply-Demand Dynamics Behind the Plunge
Looking at the data distribution, the highest sales-to-production ratio was 85%, while the lowest was 0%, revealing significant disparities in order acquisition capabilities among enterprises. Most companies reported ratios between 20% and 40%, indicating generally weak downstream purchasing appetite. Texworld editors noted that this data backdrop comes as polyester filament yarn manufacturers adjusted list prices but kept actual transactions stable, with downstream users showing clear resistance to high prices and buyers only maintaining essential demand.
This means the polyester filament yarn market is currently trapped in a dual squeeze: cost-push pressure on one side and demand suppression on the other. High upstream raw material prices force manufacturers to tentatively raise prices, while downstream weaving enterprises, facing insufficient end-order volumes and shrinking profit margins, adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy for high-priced materials, refusing to build inventory. The direct result of this standoff is persistently low sales-to-production ratios.
Industry Chain Transmission and Regional Impact
The low sales-to-production ratio in polyester filament yarn first puts pressure on chemical fiber clusters in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. Industrial belts like Shaoxing, Tongxiang, and Shengze report sample enterprise sales data generally below the industry average, with some factories even recording zero transactions. If this continues, it will further force upstream polyester plants to cut production or undergo maintenance to ease inventory pressure.
From the downstream demand side, terminal markets such as apparel fabrics and home textiles have entered the traditional off-season. Combined with foreign trade orders affected by global inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, overall performance has fallen short of expectations. Weaving enterprise operating rates have shown signs of decline, naturally leading to more conservative procurement of chemical fiber raw materials. Texworld believes this round of declining sales-to-production ratios is not an isolated incident but a microcosm of the overall demand contraction in the textile industry chain.
Price Expectations and Operational Strategies
The core contradiction currently facing the polyester filament yarn market is: when will the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand break? In the short term, if upstream PTA and MEG raw material prices remain firm, polyester filament yarn manufacturers have limited room for price cuts. However, if the sales-to-production ratio continues to stay below 40%, some enterprises may offer hidden discounts to recover cash.
For buyers, current price levels are not ideal for bottom-fishing, but they can watch for promotional windows at month-end or quarter-end when companies rush to meet targets. For foreign trade companies, they need to be vigilant about the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on export order profits and consider using forward contracts to lock in some raw material costs.