The chemical fiber market in early July has not seen the expected post-off-season recovery. According to public data from China Customs and industry sources, on July 3, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises was only 33.0%, up a mere 1.3 percentage points from the previous day. This figure implies that over 60% of production capacity has not been converted into effective orders, and industry inventory pressures are quietly building.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Behind the Sales Data
A closer look at the daily data reveals extreme divergence among sample enterprises: most companies reported sales rates between 15% and 40%, with only a single outlier reaching 200%. This distribution sends two key signals: first, the overall market demand base is weak; second, the high sales rate of a few firms likely stems from aggressive price cuts or specific large orders, offering no general reference.
From a supply chain perspective, the sales rate of polyester filament yarn directly affects upstream procurement of PTA and MEG, as well as downstream weaving and dyeing operating rates. A rate below 40% indicates that downstream weaving mills are actively reducing raw material inventories to cope with uncertainty in final garment orders.
Manufacturer Sentiment Diverges and Prices Soften
Faced with persistently low sales data, chemical fiber manufacturers have adopted noticeably divergent strategies. Some are holding price lines, hoping for restocking demand ahead of the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season. Others have begun to cut prices, attempting to stimulate downstream replenishment. However, actual transactions show that price cuts have not effectively boosted demand—downstream users continue to purchase only on a need-to basis, avoiding panic buying or speculative stockpiling.
This "price cuts without volume growth" dilemma stems from a fundamental mismatch in expectations between upstream and downstream players. Upstream producers hope to stabilize profits through cost support (e.g., sustained high PTA prices) and production cuts, while downstream users, facing weak orders, refuse to take on raw material inventory risk. The standoff is pushing the market into a temporary price stalemate.
Regional Industrial Belt Reactions
In major polyester filament yarn clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, weaving mill operating rates remain generally low. Industry surveys indicate that some small and medium-sized weaving mills have reduced operating rates to below 50%, directly cutting their procurement frequency. Meanwhile, warp knitting and circular knitting factories in Fujian and Guangdong also report limited growth in export orders and fierce competition in the domestic market, further lengthening their raw material purchasing cycles.
This regional demand contraction is now transmitting upstream. If the sales rate fails to recover above 50% within the next two weeks, more polyester plants are expected to initiate production cuts or maintenance to relieve inventory pressure. This would, in turn, pressure demand for PTA and MEG, creating a chain reaction across the supply chain.
Outlook and Operational Recommendations
Based on current data, the chemical fiber market in the first half of July is likely to continue its pattern of low sales and weak transactions. Polyester filament yarn prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking a clear upward catalyst. The key variable to break the deadlock will be the pace of destocking in the garment market and the recovery rhythm of export orders.