On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises stood at a mere 35.5%, plunging 4.9 percentage points from the previous day and hitting a recent low. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, fewer than 36 tons were actually sold, significantly accelerating inventory buildup.
Sales Cliff: Collective Silence After Downstream Replenishment
Looking at the specific sales data from 21 sampled enterprises, 16 reported ratios between 20% and 35%, with only one reaching 70% and the rest below 40%. This 'long-tail low-sales' distribution indicates that downstream weaving and texturing sectors, after a previous round of concentrated procurement, have generally shifted to a wait-and-see stance.
Notably, while a 35.5% ratio is not an extreme low, combined with fluctuations in previous days, it suggests that downstream users' restocking has been temporarily completed. For chemical fiber plants, this means weakened near-term order support, shifting inventory destocking pressure to later stages.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: Weak End Demand Is the Root Cause
The sharp decline in polyester filament yarn sales is not an isolated intermediate phenomenon. From a chain perspective, upstream raw materials like PTA and ethylene glycol have recently oscillated without providing strong directional signals. The real issue lies at the end—textile and apparel domestic demand and export orders have not shown significant growth, leading to high grey fabric inventories at weaving mills, which in turn curbs their willingness to purchase polyester filament yarn.
Industry public data shows that the operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has hovered around 72% for three consecutive weeks, below last year's levels. Insufficient end orders force weaving mills to adopt a 'buy-as-needed, small-batch, multiple-lot' approach rather than bulk stocking. This procurement strategy directly reflects in the sales ratio: once inventories reach a psychological level, downstream players quickly exit.
Price Outlook: Downward Pressure Near Term, Cost-Demand Game in Medium Term
A sluggish sales ratio often signals weakening price support. Although quoted prices for POY, FDY, and DTY polyester filament yarn remain stable for now, covert discounts and concessions have appeared in actual transactions. To alleviate inventory pressure, some plants may introduce more explicit promotional policies within the next week, further dragging down market averages.
From the cost side, future trends are uncertain. International oil prices fluctuate significantly due to geopolitical and macroeconomic expectations, and any unusual movements in the PX-PTA chain could force adjustments in polyester filament yarn prices from the cost side. However, the key variable remains demand: if autumn/winter season orders fail to pick up by August, the sales ratio may stay below 40% for an extended period, sharply increasing the probability of plant production cuts.