A jump in crude oil prices immediately reshaped the polyester filament yarn (DTY) market. According to industry data released on July 8, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample DTY enterprises soared to 103.6% from 42.9% the previous trading day—a single-day surge of 60.7 percentage points. Such a pulse rally is rare since the second quarter of 2024, but the structural divergence behind the numbers deserves closer scrutiny.
The Pulse Rally: Sentiment-Driven Sales Recovery
Individual enterprise data on that day ranged from 10% to 300%, showing extreme 'ice and fire'. High performers at 300% and 200% likely benefited from low previous inventories and concentrated downstream restocking; low ones at 10% and 40% reflected no real recovery in end demand. The average of 103.6% means the industry just broke even, but the median was likely far lower, with most firms still struggling under destocking pressure.
The trigger for this pulse was clear: crude oil and polyester raw material (PTA, MEG) prices jumped between July 7 and 8. The upward cost expectation quickly transmitted to the midstream of the polyester chain, prompting downstream weaving mills and traders to buy in bulk under the 'buy on rising, avoid on falling' psychology. This cost-driven restocking is essentially a bet on further price increases, not based on actual order growth.
Industry Impact: New Game under Cost Transmission
For DTY producers, the rising sales ratio undoubtedly alleviates immediate inventory pressure. However, the 103.6% ratio only partially digested the previous day's backlog, without significantly changing the industry's high inventory landscape. More critically, if crude oil prices correct later, downstream restocking enthusiasm will fade quickly, and the inflated sales data may be revised.
For downstream weaving and dyeing sectors, rising raw material costs mean passive increases in production costs. Current loom utilization in Jiangsu and Zhejiang stands at around 70%. While autumn/winter fabric orders are emerging, incremental growth is limited. If DTY prices keep rising, weaving mills face a dilemma: 'don't buy and fear further rises, buy now and fear a drop.' Foreign trade orders, with longer delivery cycles, are especially sensitive to price volatility. Excessive raw material cost hikes could trigger order renegotiation or even cancellations.
From an industrial cluster perspective, major DTY production and sales regions like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan showed clear differences in this pulse. Shengze, closer to downstream weaving clusters, generally reported better sales data; some inland enterprises, with longer transport radii and weaker customer ties, saw limited improvement. This regional divergence highlights the gap in supply chain coordination capabilities.