72 billion yuan—Hengli Petrochemical earned more in the first half of 2026 than it did in the entire previous year. According to its performance forecast released on July 6, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 surged approximately 136% year-on-year, and increased over 40% sequentially from H2 2025. After two years of profit troughs in the textile fiber industry, this figure forces the market to reassess the cycle's position.

Underlying Logic: Spread Recovery and Integration Dividends

Deconstructing Hengli's profit growth reveals a systematic recovery in spreads across the entire value chain, not a single product price hike. In the first half, the refining segment benefited from widening spreads in bulk petrochemicals like aromatics and olefins, becoming the main profit contributor. Despite industry-wide pressure on processing fees, the PTA segment maintained above-average profitability thanks to its ultra-large scale and raw material self-sufficiency. The polyester new materials segment saw stable production and sales as downstream demand recovered moderately, with profits rebounding accordingly.

This 'three-pronged' performance essentially reflects the concentrated payoff from Hengli's deeply integrated 'oil-coal-chemical' industrial chain. Unlike single-segment players, Hengli can flexibly switch between crude oil and coal as feedstock and dynamically adjust production schedules based on margin changes across different links. When refining margins strengthen, it prioritizes high utilization of refining units; when PTA margins weaken, it reduces external purchases and increases internal supply. This dynamic adjustment capability allows the company to maximize overall benefits amid cyclical fluctuations.

Practical Impact on Buyers and Exporters

Hengli's profit signal offers direct reference for procurement decisions in the textile fiber chain. First, profit recovery in the refining segment suggests a potential upward shift in upstream raw material prices such as PX and benzene, which could compress processing margins in the PTA and polyester segments. PTA plants relying on external raw materials may face increased cost pressure in the second half.

Second, the rebound in polyester new materials' profitability indicates a moderate improvement in downstream textile demand. However, this recovery is not across the board—Hengli's polyester products are differentiated and high-end, such as functional polyester films and lithium battery separators, whose demand growth stems from specific niches rather than a general uptick. Therefore, the profit recovery for commodity grades like conventional polyester filament and staple fiber may lag.

For exporters, Hengli's positive performance often triggers price hike expectations across the chain. If downstream customers accept higher purchase prices, the room for negotiation on export quotes widens. However, this depends on genuine recovery in overseas demand, not just a short-term domestic inventory cycle.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor the share of refining profits in Hengli's subsequent quarterly reports. If it continues to rise, upstream raw material prices may have further room to increase; consider locking in PTA, MEG, and other raw material procurement earlier. - For polyester products, distinguish between commodity and differentiated grades: keep low inventory and fast turnover for commodity items; increase stock for differentiated products, as they have stronger price elasticity and more stable margins.

For Exporters - Use Hengli's performance announcement as a negotiation tool to explain to overseas customers the rising cost trends in China's textile fiber chain, aiming for higher export quotes. - Closely track order data during the 'golden September and silver October' peak season. If overseas orders recover to over 5% year-on-year growth in August-September, consider locking in upstream raw material supply in advance.

For Factories - Hengli's integrated model suggests that single-segment factories should accelerate upstream or downstream expansion, or at least establish long-term raw material supply agreements with a major refining company to hedge against spread volatility. - Monitor the ramp-up of new capacity in Hengli's high-end segments like functional polyester films and lithium battery separators. These premium products will divert capacity from conventional polyester, potentially easing the oversupply pressure on commodity grades.

资料来源:化纤邦查看原始资料
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