On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises plummeted to 35.5%, a sharp drop of 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This is not an isolated case but a typical reflection of downstream users collectively retreating to wait-and-see after concentrated replenishment. As restocking demand was quickly released, the market fell into a sluggish state, with sales ratios ranging from 20% to 70% and most enterprises hovering between 20% and 35%.
The Logic Behind the Plunge
The dramatic fluctuation in PFY sales ratios is essentially a microcosm of the game between upstream and downstream players in the chemical fiber supply chain. In early July, polyester raw material prices remained relatively stable, prompting downstream weaving mills to seize the low-price window for concentrated replenishment, quickly raising their previously low inventories. However, after the restocking was completed, terminal orders did not pick up simultaneously, leading to inventory accumulation at the fabric and grey cloth stages. To digest their own stocks, downstream enterprises naturally suspended purchases, forming a cyclical pattern of 'stock up - wait - restock.'
From the specific data, only one sample enterprise achieved a sales ratio of 70%, while the rest were below 40%, with some even recording zero sales. This high degree of divergence indicates that not all PFY varieties face the same dilemma: differentiated products such as cationic and functional yarns still have localized demand, while conventional POY, FDY, and DTY encounter a more pronounced demand vacuum.
Impact on Industrial Clusters
This wave of wait-and-see sentiment has directly impacted major chemical fiber industrial clusters. In key PFY producing areas such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing, Tongxiang in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu, enterprise inventory days are rapidly climbing. According to publicly available industry data, as of July 10, inventory at some sample enterprises has risen from 12-15 days at the beginning of July to 18-22 days, approaching the warning line. Under inventory pressure, some factories have begun to offer hidden discounts to move goods, but the downstream 'buy on rising, not falling' mentality further suppresses transactions.
On the weaving side, the operating rate of water-jet looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region remains around 70%, but new orders are dominated by short-term, small-lot orders lacking sustainability. Home textile and apparel fabric enterprises generally report that end customers have shortened order cycles to 2-3 weeks, forcing weaving mills to maintain low raw material inventories and adopt a fast-in, fast-out strategy. This 'short and fast' model is the micro-foundation of the dramatic sales ratio fluctuations.
Price Expectations and Cost Games
Currently, PFY prices are at a mid-year level, with cost support from PTA and MEG being moderate but lacking upward momentum. The tug-of-war between polyester factories and downstream weaving mills is intensifying: upstream players attempt to support prices through production cuts (some large polyester plants plan to reduce operating rates by 10%-15%), while downstream players insist on procurement based on actual needs and refuse to hoard. This game pattern is unlikely to break in the short term, and sales ratios are expected to oscillate within the 30%-50% range until late July.
Notably, the export market serves as a buffer. According to customs data, PFY exports increased by about 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly to Southeast Asian textile processing countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. The resilience of overseas orders provides a floor for domestic sales ratios but is insufficient to reverse the overall downturn.