The polyester filament yarn market suffered a significant sales slump on July 10. According to industry public data, the average sales rate among sample enterprises was only 35.5%, a sharp drop of 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure not only falls below the commonly recognized 40% threshold but also directly reveals the collective withdrawal mentality of downstream users after a brief period of concentrated replenishment. For weaving mills, this signals a shift in raw material procurement from active stockpiling to passive inventory consumption.
The Demand Logic Behind Sluggish Sales
Looking at the specific distribution of sales data, the 35.5% average masks a highly fragmented transaction structure. Among the 21 sample enterprises, more than half reported sales rates concentrated in the 20% to 35% range, with isolated cases of zero transactions. Only a handful of companies managed to maintain rates of 60% to 70%, relying on differentiated products or long-term orders. This 'fire and ice' pattern indicates that the market is not entirely stagnant but rather concentrating demand on varieties with price advantages or functional specialties.
It is noteworthy that this sharp contraction in sales rate is not a sudden event but a natural correction after pre-stocking exhausted demand. In early July, polyester filament yarn prices stabilized briefly due to fluctuations in upstream PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid), prompting downstream weaving mills to make small-batch purchases. However, after replenishment, terminal orders did not expand synchronously, leading factories to pause new purchases and digest existing inventory. This alternating cycle of 'buying on rising prices and waiting after buying' is a typical feature of the current chemical fiber market game.
Dual Pressure from Cost Support and Inventory
The decline in polyester filament yarn sales rate directly impacts the operating rates and inventory days of upstream polyester segments. Even as PTA and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) prices oscillate within a narrow range, the processing profits of polyester plants remain compressed. Low sales rates mean products cannot be smoothly converted into cash flow, forcing factories to reduce production or offer discounts to relieve inventory pressure. For major industrial clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, this pressure will first manifest as loosening prices for grey fabrics.
From an industrial chain transmission perspective, polyester filament yarn, as an intermediate raw material, typically lags behind upstream raw materials in price movements but leads downstream grey fabrics. The current sales rate consistently below 40% implies that inventory accumulation at polyester plants is accelerating. If this trend cannot be reversed within the next two weeks, ex-factory prices of polyester filament yarn may see a slight dip of 100 to 200 yuan per ton. For foreign trade enterprises, this could represent a brief procurement window, but only if terminal orders are sufficient to support the digestion of new inventory.
Industrial Impact and Regional Divergence
Different categories of polyester filament yarn exhibit varied performance in this round of sales fluctuations. Conventional POY (Pre-Oriented Yarn) and FDY (Fully Drawn Yarn) generally have sales rates below the average, while DTY (Draw Textured Yarn) shows relatively stable transactions. This reflects an increasing preference among downstream weaving mills for differentiated products—conventional grey fabrics offer thin profit margins, so factories prefer to purchase high-elasticity or fine-denier yarns to enhance product added value.
Regionally, the Shengze area, one of the largest consumers of polyester filament yarn in China, has seen its weaving operating rate decline from 75% in mid-June to around 70%. Although orders for jacquard fabrics in the Keqiao market have slightly rebounded, they are insufficient to drive overall raw material demand. The Nantong home textile sector has entered a seasonal lull, with polyester filament yarn procurement volumes decreasing approximately 15% month-on-month. These regional differences remind purchasers to adjust inventory strategies based on the specific demand conditions of end markets.