On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises dropped to 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons were absorbed by the market. After a period of concentrated replenishment, downstream users quickly shifted to a wait-and-see stance, resulting in sluggish trading.
Industry Signal of the Sales Rate Plunge
A sales-to-production ratio below 40% is a clear weak signal in the polyester filament yarn industry. The 35.5% figure indicates that downstream weaving mills are not only refraining from additional purchases but are actively reducing inventory. Specific data from the sampled enterprises shows that most companies had ratios ranging from 20% to 35%, with the lowest at zero and the highest at only 70%. This distribution suggests a systemic demand contraction rather than isolated issues.
The direct trigger was the earlier concentrated replenishment. In early July, when polyester filament yarn prices were relatively low, weaving mills conducted a round of bulk purchases, replenishing their inventories. However, after the replenishment, terminal orders did not pick up simultaneously, prompting mills to shift to digesting existing stocks, leading to a sharp drop in new procurement demand.
Supply Chain Transmission: From Polyester to Weaving
The sluggish sales rate of polyester filament yarn is essentially a result of mismatched rhythms between upstream and downstream. Upstream polyester plants maintained high operating rates, while downstream weaving mills did not see a corresponding increase in utilization. According to public industry data, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving mills in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region remained at 65%-70% in early July, lower than the same period in previous years. This means actual consumption of polyester filament yarn lagged behind supply.
More notably, the cost side has seen limited movement. PTA and ethylene glycol prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range, failing to provide clear cost support for polyester filament yarn. Under pressure from both costs and inventory, polyester plants have weakened their price-holding stance, with some varieties even seeing hidden discounts. This price softening further reinforces downstream wait-and-see sentiment: why rush to buy if prices might continue to fall?
Regional Industrial Zones: Procurement Pace Changes in Shengze, Changxing
The main consumption areas for polyester filament yarn are concentrated in Shengze (Jiangsu), Changxing (Zhejiang), and Xiaoshan. Weaving mills in these zones, which produce conventional fabrics and linings, have highly synchronized procurement rhythms. Data from July 10 shows that these mills have generally adopted a 'buy-as-you-use' strategy, eliminating safety stocks. This shift directly compresses the circulation volume of polyester filament yarn.
Historically, July is a transition period from the off-season to the peak season for textiles. However, this year's willingness to stock up is significantly weaker than in previous years, due to cautious ordering by apparel brands and slower-than-expected recovery of export orders. A medium-sized mill in Shengze noted that current orders can only sustain production until the end of July, with no clear orders for August, making large-scale stockpiling risky.
Short-Term Impact on Polyester Filament Yarn Prices
A persistently low sales-to-production ratio means social inventories of polyester filament yarn are accumulating. Industry experience suggests that when the ratio stays below 40% for a week, polyester plants will face inventory pressure and may resort to price cuts or promotions to stimulate sales. This trend has already emerged: on July 10, some factories reduced prices for conventional varieties by 50-100 yuan per ton, but with limited effect.
If downstream orders do not improve significantly in late July, polyester filament yarn prices may face further downward pressure. However, cost support from PTA and MEG remains, limiting the potential for a sharp decline. A more likely scenario is that prices will fluctuate narrowly around cost levels, waiting for a substantive recovery in downstream demand.