On July 10, cross-verification of data from China Customs and public industry sources confirmed a key signal: the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises stood at only 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that after the replenishment pulse faded, downstream weaving companies almost collectively withdrew overnight, shifting the market from 'essential procurement' to 'full wait-and-see' mode.
Accelerating Off-Season Effect
The 35.5% sales ratio is not an isolated data point. Looking at specific figures disclosed by sample enterprises, the distribution of sales ratios on that day was extremely polarized—more than half of the companies had ratios concentrated in the 20%-30% range, with the lowest even hitting 0%. Only a handful reached 70%. This 'long-tail slump' pattern indicates that end demand has not formed an effective relay but instead exhibits fragmented, pulse-like characteristics.
Comparing with previous data from July 8 and July 6, the trading activity in the polyester filament yarn market is experiencing a stepwise decline. After a round of concentrated replenishment, downstream users have generally chosen to step back and wait, forming a sharp contrast with the previous expectation of a 'not-so-dull off-season' in July. Industry analysis suggests this is a combined result of weak end garment orders, high inventory levels at weaving mills, and working capital pressure.
Transmission Upstream and Downstream: From Polyester Filament Yarn to PET Chips
The sharp drop in the polyester filament yarn sales ratio directly pressures the upstream PET chip market. As the main raw material for polyester filament yarn, PET chip prices are highly correlated with sales ratios. When filament sales are sluggish, factories prioritize consuming their own inventories, reducing demand for chips, thereby suppressing chip prices.
For downstream weaving mills, a 35.5% sales ratio means raw material procurement willingness has hit a freezing point. With limited order visibility, weaving mills tend to maintain a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid tying up too much working capital in raw materials. Once this cautious mindset sets in, it may take one to two weeks or longer to recover, depending on when end orders are released.
Notably, some sample enterprises still maintained sales ratios between 30% and 40%, indicating the market is not completely stalled but exhibits structural divergence. Companies with differentiated products and deeper ties to brand customers face relatively less impact. For conventional specification products, homogenized competition will be further amplified during the off-season.
Inventory Cycle and Price Expectations
A sales ratio below 40% is generally considered an industry 'warning line.' At this level, inventory days at polyester filament yarn factories are likely to rise rapidly. Public industry data indicates that if the sales ratio remains below 40% for a consecutive week, factory inventory turnover days could extend from the current 10-12 days to over 15 days.
Rising inventory pressure will directly test factory pricing strategies. Currently, most factories are maintaining stable prices, but if the sales ratio remains persistently low, localized promotions cannot be ruled out in late July. For buyers, this could present a phased low-price window, but timing is crucial—entering too early risks further declines, while entering too late may miss the bottom.