On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises fell to 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day, triggering widespread concern within the industry. Downstream users quickly retreated to the sidelines after concentrated replenishment, leading to sluggish market transactions. This reflects a deep game mentality between the upstream and downstream segments of the chemical fiber industry chain.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
A 35.5% sales-to-production ratio means that over 60% of the day's polyester filament capacity was not converted into actual sales. According to China Customs and industry public data, polyester filament, as a core raw material for textile fabrics, directly reflects the operating willingness and inventory strategy of weaving mills. Looking at the specific sample data for that day, most enterprises had ratios between 20% and 35%, with a few even at zero, and only a handful reaching 70%. This highly dispersed distribution indicates that downstream procurement behavior has shifted from bulk stocking to scattered replenishment, with the market lacking a unified bullish expectation.
For buyers, this signal suggests that the short-term price game is tilting in their favor. Weaving mills generally hold a 'waiting for price drop' mentality, preferring to risk supply interruptions rather than buying at high prices, which forces chemical fiber plants to consider price cuts to reduce inventory.
Transmission Effects Along the Industry Chain
The sluggish polyester filament market is not an isolated event. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices have been volatile recently, weakening cost support. Meanwhile, downstream weaving clusters—such as in Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan—have seen water-jet loom operating rates fall from May's highs to around 70%, with grey fabric inventories gradually accumulating. Research by the Textile Circle editorial team reveals that most weaving mills currently hold raw material inventories of 7-10 days, a safe but low level, yet they remain on the sidelines. The core reason is doubt about the sustainability of end-use garment orders.
The foreign trade front is also under pressure. Slower replenishment by European and American apparel retailers, coupled with continued order diversion to Southeast Asia, prevents domestic weaving mills from expanding raw material reserves. The low sales-to-production ratio in the polyester filament market is an inevitable result of weak end-demand being transmitted upstream.
Price Expectations and Operational Strategies
In terms of price trends, the three main polyester filament varieties—POY, FDY, and DTY—saw covert price cuts of 50-100 yuan per ton in early July, but transaction volumes did not increase significantly. Industry public data shows that the equity inventory of polyester filament factories has risen to 12-15 days, higher than the same period last year. If the sales-to-production ratio fails to recover above 50% in the next two weeks, factories will face greater inventory pressure and may be forced to offer larger discounts or directly lower ex-factory prices.
For traders, the safest strategy at present is to maintain light positions and avoid passively taking delivery during a price downtrend. Historical experience suggests that July-August is typically a traditional off-season for the chemical fiber market. Combined with the uncertainty of this year's macroeconomic environment, this wait-and-see period may last longer than in previous years.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Implement a 'weekly procurement' strategy, stocking no more than five days' supply at a time to hedge against further price declines. - Monitor PTA futures trends; if the PTA main contract breaks below key support levels, spot polyester filament prices are likely to follow, providing an opportunity to replenish. - Negotiate short-term floating price agreements with suppliers to lock in discount levels and avoid holding high-cost inventory from concentrated purchases.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include a 'raw material price fluctuation clause' in export quotations to partially shift the risk of polyester filament price changes to overseas buyers. - Use the current window of weak domestic demand to adjust product mix, increasing the export share of high value-added differentiated fibers (e.g., cationic, flame-retardant, antibacterial). - Monitor raw material procurement dynamics of Southeast Asian weaving mills; if they also enter a wait-and-see phase, it may signal a phase of global textile demand contraction, requiring advance order scheduling adjustments.
This cooling of the polyester filament market is essentially a normal correction after a 'cost-pushed rally' in the industry chain. For all participants, rather than betting on a market reversal, it is wiser to manage risks proactively and wait for clear signals of the next demand release.