On July 8, 2026, the chemical fiber market sent a noteworthy signal: the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises surged from 42.9% the previous trading day to 103.6%, a single-day increase of 60.7 percentage points. This was the largest single-day gain since mid-May, driven not by an explosion in end-user demand but by a pulse of inventory replenishment triggered by upstream cost escalation.
Event Background: Sentiment Repair Driven by Costs
The July 8 data reveals a key characteristic: severe internal divergence. Among sample enterprises, the highest sales-to-production ratio reached 300%, while the lowest was only 10%, a gap of 290 percentage points. This indicates that not all enterprises benefited equally; only specific specifications or brands saw concentrated downstream procurement.
The core driver of this rebound was the cost side. International crude oil prices rose for two consecutive trading days on July 6–7, pushing up prices of polyester feedstocks PTA and MEG simultaneously. As an intermediate link in the polyester chain, PFY was directly squeezed by rising raw material costs. Downstream weaving mills, fearing further price increases, rushed to replenish inventories on July 8, artificially boosting the sales ratio.
It is important to note that this cost-expectation-driven procurement is fundamentally different from a genuine recovery in end-user orders for apparel and home textiles. The current loom operating rate in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region remains around 68%, showing no significant improvement, indicating that actual downstream demand is still in a weak recovery phase.
Industry Impact: Sustainability of the Pulse Rebound is Questionable
A sales-to-production ratio above 100% is not unusual—during cost-up cycles, concentrated downstream replenishment often distorts single-day data. What really matters is whether this pulse rebound can translate into sustained purchasing momentum. Historically, similar cost-driven replenishment events in 2025 typically lasted only 2–3 trading days, after which the ratio quickly fell back to the 50%–70% range.
For PFY producers, the short-term ratio improvement helps destocking. As of July 7, the industry average inventory stood at about 18–20 days, moderately high. The July 8 procurement spree is estimated to have absorbed 1–2 days of inventory. However, if feedstock prices retreat, downstream buyers may quickly turn cautious, and inventory pressure will reaccumulate.
From a profitability perspective, cost increases have not fully passed through to product prices. On July 8, PFY POY, FDY, and DTY prices rose only by 50–100 yuan/ton, while feedstock PTA rose by over 150 yuan/ton in the same period. This means processing margins are being squeezed further, adding cash flow pressure on small and medium-sized producers.
Practical Recommendations: Buyers Should Beware of Chasing Highs
The core contradiction in the current market is the disconnect between upstream cost expectations and downstream actual demand. For downstream buyers such as textile mills and fabric traders, the July 8 data is a warning signal, not a signal to chase prices.
For Buyers - Avoid chasing high prices during cost-driven pulse rallies. It is advisable to wait 2–3 trading days until market sentiment stabilizes before reassessing real supply-demand dynamics. - Monitor futures trends of polyester feedstocks PTA and MEG. If feedstock prices stall or decline, PFY prices are likely to follow suit. - Prioritize suppliers with a stable sales-to-production ratio of 80%–100%, as their products have more balanced supply-demand profiles and more controllable price volatility.
For Exporters - Adopt a floating pricing model for export orders based on "feedstock price + processing fee" to avoid profit erosion from short-term raw material fluctuations. - Watch the correlation between the renminbi exchange rate and international crude oil. Rising crude prices typically strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the renminbi and affecting the dollar-denominated competitiveness of export products. - For orders with long delivery lead times, include a raw material price adjustment clause in contracts, stipulating that when PTA prices fluctuate by more than 5%, both parties will renegotiate prices.
In summary, the July 8 sales ratio surge is a short-term result of cost transmission and sentiment resonance, not a fundamental improvement in industry fundamentals. The PFY market remains in a tug-of-war between strong upstream costs and weak downstream demand. The next move depends on whether crude oil can sustain its rally and whether end-user textile orders can materially recover.