On July 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 42.9%, a sharp 29-percentage-point drop from the previous trading day's 71.9%. This data directly reflects that downstream buying sentiment has hit a freezing point—over half of the enterprises recorded ratios between 30% and 45%, with only a handful achieving a 200% ratio through discount-driven sales.
The market had shown signs. Looking at the specific sales data from 23 sample enterprises released that day, the distribution reveals a clear polarization: the highest value of 200% differs by 20 times from the lowest 10%, with the median hovering around 35%. This dispersion indicates that the current demand contraction is not industry-wide uniform, but rather a coexistence of localized discounting and widespread wait-and-see sentiment. Some enterprises actively cut prices to boost sales, but most failed to effectively stimulate downstream procurement even with price-for-volume strategies.
Industry Logic Behind the Plunge
The sharp decline in the polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratio, on the surface, reflects low downstream buying sentiment, but the deeper reasons lie in the inventory and expectation game across the supply chain. July typically marks the transition period between the traditional off-season and autumn-winter stocking for the textile industry, when downstream weaving mills are often in a destocking phase and adopt a cautious stance toward raw material purchases. The 29-percentage-point drop in just one trading day further underscores fragile market confidence—likely compounded by multiple factors such as fluctuations in upstream polyester raw material prices and unclear terminal apparel orders.
Notably, as many as 17 enterprises recorded a sales-to-production ratio of 40% or below, accounting for about 74% of the sample. This means the vast majority of polyester filament yarn producers face serious inventory overhang risks. According to industry experience, a ratio persistently below 50% forces companies to passively accumulate inventory, potentially triggering price wars or operating rate cuts. The behavior of individual enterprises offering discounts to achieve sales balance essentially trades profit for cash flow to avoid tying up too much capital in inventory.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Price Expectations
The sluggish sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn will inevitably transmit upstream to polyester chips, PTA, and PX. When yarn producers' inventories are high, their demand for polyester chips weakens, thereby suppressing chip prices. Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills remain on the sidelines not only due to insufficient orders but also possibly waiting for further price declines. This "buy on rising, not on falling" psychology is common in textile raw material markets—once a downward price expectation forms, buyers actively postpone purchases until prices hit bottom.
From a broader perspective, this plunge is not an isolated event. The chemical fiber industry has faced dual pressures of overcapacity and weak demand since 2025. Polyester filament yarn, as the largest category of chemical fibers, often serves as a barometer of industry health. The July 7 data may be just the tip of a broader demand contraction iceberg.