Sharp Drop in Polyester Filament Yarn Sales: Market Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominates, Chemical Fiber Industry Enters Adjustment Phase

On July 9, trading in the polyester filament yarn market suddenly turned cold. According to industry public data, the average production-sales ratio of sample enterprises was only 40.4%, a sharp decline of 63.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This cliff-like drop is not accidental but a typical signal that the market has entered a wait-and-see period after a concentrated restocking phase.

Market Background

In the previous trading day, the production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn briefly expanded, with some enterprises reporting ratios as high as 120% to 180%. Downstream weaving enterprises took advantage of low prices to quickly replenish their raw material inventories. However, such impulse buying is unsustainable. Once the replenishment demand was released, the market quickly returned to dullness. On July 9, most enterprises' production-sales ratios were concentrated in the 25% to 50% range, with only a few maintaining above 60%, and some even as low as 10%.

This kind of drastic fluctuation is not unprecedented in the chemical fiber industry. Looking back at market data since mid-June, a similar pattern of "surge-then-plunge" has repeated itself multiple times, including on June 25, June 16, June 12, and June 10. This indicates that the current polyester filament yarn market has entered a cycle of volatility driven by short-term replenishment demand, rather than a trending market.

Industry Impact

For upstream polyester plants, the sharp drop in the production-sales ratio means that inventory pressure may re-accumulate. The destocking effect brought by the previous round of replenishment could be quickly consumed, leaving enterprises with a dilemma of either reducing operating rates or offering discounts to stimulate sales. On the cost side, raw material prices such as PTA and MEG have been relatively stable recently, but weak end-user demand makes it difficult for cost support to effectively transmit to polyester filament yarn prices.

The wait-and-see attitude of downstream weaving enterprises reveals deeper demand concerns. The current terminal market for textiles and apparel has not shown clear signs of recovery, with limited growth in foreign trade orders and a lack of explosive points in domestic demand. Weaving enterprises choose to replenish when inventories are low but immediately stop purchasing after replenishment, indicating their cautious outlook and unwillingness to bear excessive raw material inventory risks.

This game between upstream and downstream is reshaping the procurement rhythm of the industry chain. The traditional "monthly procurement" model is being replaced by a flexible strategy of "replenishing on demand and fast in, fast out." For traders and logistics service providers, this means greater volatility in orders and reduced predictability, placing higher demands on supply chain responsiveness.

Practical Recommendations

For Purchasers - Use the market wait-and-see period to sign short-term supply agreements with upstream suppliers, locking in some low-cost supply to avoid being forced to chase higher prices in the next round of concentrated replenishment. - Establish a more refined inventory level monitoring mechanism, using the production-sales ratio as a leading indicator for procurement decisions rather than a post-event verification tool. - Monitor the futures price trends of PTA and MEG. When there is a clear signal of cost collapse on the raw material side, consider delaying the replenishment pace appropriately.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include floating clauses in export quotations to partially transfer the risk of polyester filament yarn price fluctuations to foreign buyers, preventing profit erosion due to sharp domestic raw material price swings. - Strengthen communication with customers in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and South Asia to understand whether their replenishment cycles are synchronized with domestic ones, seeking opportunities for off-peak procurement. - Use the current window of relatively stable domestic prices to lock in raw material costs for forward orders in advance, preparing for potential price rebounds in the second half of the year.