A rebound in crude oil prices is sending ripples through the chemical fiber supply chain. On July 8, the average sales-to-production ratio among polyester filament yarn sample enterprises reached 103.6%, a sharp increase of 60.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that within just 24 hours, downstream weaving mills shifted from cautious观望 to active restocking.
The Logic Behind Sentiment Recovery
The direct trigger for this volatility was the uptick in crude oil and polyester feedstock prices. In the chemical fiber chain, PTA and MEG account for over 80% of polyester filament yarn costs, and both are highly sensitive to crude oil trends. When crude oil futures rebounded, feedstock prices rose, prompting downstream firms to stock up in anticipation of further increases.
Industry data shows that on July 7, the sales-to-production ratio stood at just 42.9%, near a yearly low, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment. The next day's figure not only doubled but exceeded 100%, breaching the industry's breakeven line. Such a single-day jump of over 60 percentage points is rare in the polyester filament yarn market over the past three years.
Divergence Among Producers: A Deeper Concern
Beneath the average lies significant disparity. In the sample, the highest sales-to-production ratio hit 300%, while the lowest was only 10%. This means not all players benefited equally from the sentiment boost.
Specifically, about 45% of sample firms achieved ratios above 100%, mainly large polyester plants with cost advantages or brand premiums. These firms secured orders first due to stable supply and quality. In contrast, 35% of firms saw ratios below 50%, mostly small- to medium-sized mills serving smaller weaving factories with tight cash flows and higher price sensitivity.
This divergence suggests the recovery is structural and selective, not broad-based. Large mills can pass on cost pressures through scale and bargaining power, while small mills face a squeeze from both rising raw material costs and downstream price resistance.
Sustainability Question: End Demand Remains Key
Despite the strong data, the Texworld editorial team believes the rally's sustainability hinges on actual end demand from apparel and home textile markets. Currently, the downstream textile sector is in a traditional off-season, with loom utilization rates at 65%-70% and grey fabric inventories declining slowly.
On the export front, restocking demand from European and U.S. markets has picked up in Q2, but geopolitical uncertainties and shipping costs make order rhythms unstable. Expanding textile capacity in Southeast Asia is also diverting some Chinese export share. Therefore, the recent surge in polyester filament yarn sales is more likely a cost-driven, impulsive restocking event rather than a fundamental improvement in end demand.
If crude oil prices subsequently correct, polyester feedstock will lose cost support, and the concentrated procurement on July 8 may cannibalize orders in the coming weeks, dragging the ratio back down. Historical precedent from Q3 2023 shows a similar pattern: crude oil rose 8% in a week, boosting the ratio temporarily, only to fall below 60% within a month.