Polyester Raw Material Rally Drives 60-Point Surge in DTY Daily Sales Ratio

The ripple effect of rising crude oil and polyester raw material prices is hitting the polyester filament yarn market faster than expected. On July 8, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises reached 103.6%, a dramatic 60.7-percentage-point jump from the previous trading day. This figure not only indicates full coverage of daily production but also suggests that downstream weaving mills, after a period of hesitation, have begun concentrated stockpiling.

Price Transmission Mechanism & Market Sentiment

The core driver behind this surge is upstream cost pressure. The recent strengthening of international crude oil prices has directly pushed up the costs of PTA and MEG, forcing polyester filament yarn producers to raise their quotes. For weaving mills, expectations of raw material price hikes often trigger a "buy on rising prices" psychology, accelerating order releases. However, the wide dispersion in sales-to-production ratios among sample enterprises—ranging from 10% to 300%—reveals significant divergence in demand across different specifications and scales. High-ratio enterprises are mostly concentrated in standard grades, while differentiated varieties continue to see sluggish transactions.

Industrial Belt Response & Procurement Rhythm

From the perspective of industrial clusters, weaving mill operating rates in major polyester filament yarn consumption areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have remained at 60%-70% recently, with no significant recovery. The high sales-to-production ratio on July 8 appears more like a concentrated "bottom-fishing" purchase than sustained demand from end-order expansion. TexCircle learned from some weaving mills that their raw material inventories are generally low, so when a clear cost-side upward signal emerged, just-in-time replenishment was quickly released. Whether this impulsive buying can translate into weekly or monthly stable demand hinges on the recovery pace of downstream apparel and home textile orders.

Sustainability Under Scrutiny

Historical experience shows that cost-driven rallies often come fast and go fast. A similar scenario occurred in the same period in 2025: a 5% weekly surge in polyester raw materials pushed the polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratio above 120%, but within two weeks, due to disappointing end orders, the ratio plummeted below 50%. While the July 8 data is impressive, excluding the impulsive factor, actual demand improvement is limited. For polyester filament yarn producers, two indicators deserve close attention: marginal changes in downstream loom operating rates, and the subsequent support for polyester raw material prices. If crude oil remains high and volatile, this round of bullish sentiment may extend to mid-July; once crude corrects, the high ratio could quickly fade.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - At current prices, moderately increase inventory of standard specifications, but avoid excessive chasing; consider phased purchasing to control cost risk. - Focus on price fluctuations of differentiated varieties (e.g., cationic, high-filament-count products), which are less affected by sentiment and more suitable for demand-based procurement. - Negotiate short-term price lock agreements with upstream suppliers to lock in current relatively low raw material costs.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Overseas clients typically have a 1-2 week lag in accepting polyester filament yarn price hikes; proactively communicate cost changes to negotiate price adjustment clauses. - Leverage the current sales ratio recovery window to accelerate production scheduling for export orders, avoiding delivery delays due to future material shortages. - Monitor competitive dynamics in Southeast Asia; if domestic prices continue to rise, some orders may shift to alternative suppliers in Vietnam or India.