On July 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 42.9%, a sharp drop of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure implies that over 80% of sample firms reported ratios below 50%, with some as low as 10%. Downstream buying sentiment has hit a low, with transactions limited to sporadic restocking and large-scale purchases virtually absent.
Market Signals from Sales Data
Among the 23 sample enterprises, only two achieved ratios of 60% or above, with one recording a 200% ratio. The remaining 21 firms all fell below 45%. This extreme divergence suggests that only a handful of companies succeeded in destocking through aggressive price cuts, while the majority failed to stimulate demand even after reducing prices.
Historically, a 42.9% ratio sits in the lower range for the year. The previous day's figure was 71.9%, meaning the single-day decline approached 30%. Such a rapid drop is rarely caused by a single factor; rather, it reflects a concentrated release of accumulated wait-and-see sentiment.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission
As a midstream link in the chemical fiber chain, polyester filament yarn is squeezed from both ends. Upstream, PTA and MEG prices have fluctuated recently, weakening cost support and making it difficult for yarn producers to pass on costs. Downstream, weaving mill operating rates remain low, greige fabric inventories are high, and end-user orders show no clear recovery.
More critically, downstream buyers generally expect further price declines. Driven by a 'buy when rising, avoid when falling' mindset, even discount offers fail to trigger purchases. This negative feedback loop typically requires an external shock—such as a sharp rise in raw material costs or a sudden surge in end demand—to break.
Regional Responses
In major Jiangsu-Zhejiang clusters like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, traders report that inquiries have dropped 30% to 50% compared to June. Some weaving mills say their current raw material inventories can last 10 to 15 days, leaving no immediate need to restock.
Interestingly, the one firm with a 200% ratio specializes in differentiated products—cationic modified polyester yarn and high-elasticity yarn—used in relatively stable downstream niches like sportswear fabrics and home textiles. This suggests structural opportunities persist even in a sluggish market.