On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure is not only far below the industry's recognized break-even line (typically 80%-100%) but also marks a new recent low. Behind this data lies a rapid cooling of downstream weaving enterprises' restocking willingness—after a round of concentrated procurement, buyers quickly turned to wait-and-see, plunging market transactions into a deep freeze.
Data Breakdown: Sales Ratio Distribution Reveals Demand Fault Lines
Looking at specific sample data, the sales-to-production ratios of 21 enterprises are extremely unevenly distributed: the highest is 70%, the lowest is 0%, and most are concentrated in the 20%-35% range. This means more than half of the enterprises sold less than one-third of their production on that day. Notably, the occurrence of a 0% ratio is not an isolated case, indicating that some factories had virtually no substantive transactions on July 10. This kind of fractured distribution typically appears at nodes where market expectations are highly divergent or terminal orders suddenly shrink.
Comparing data from previous days, although the ratios on July 8 and July 6 were already low, they had not shown such a concentrated low-value range. The sharp decline on July 10 suggests that downstream users have completed their phase-based restocking and lack confidence in future prices, preferring to hold cash and wait rather than increase procurement.
Industry Transmission: From Polyester to Weaving, Inventory Pressure Accumulates Upstream
Polyester filament yarn is a core raw material in the midstream of the textile industry chain, and its sales ratio directly reflects the operating willingness of downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. The current 35.5% figure means that upstream polyester factories' inventories are rapidly accumulating. According to industry conventions, when the sales ratio falls below 50% continuously, factories face the risk of finished product overstock, potentially triggering price cuts or production curtailment.
From downstream feedback, the core contradiction facing weaving enterprises is insufficient terminal garment orders. Although some foreign trade orders have recovered in the first half of the year, the domestic market has remained weak, keeping weaving mill operating rates below 70%. After completing short-term restocking, procurement parties generally hold a bearish view on future raw material price trends and thus choose to reduce raw material inventories and produce according to orders.
Price Expectations: A Tug-of-War Between Cost Support and Demand Suppression
The cost side of polyester filament yarn is mainly influenced by price fluctuations of PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol). Recently, crude oil prices have been volatile, with PTA spot prices maintained in the 5800-6000 yuan/ton range, providing some cost support for polyester filament yarn. However, weak demand is offsetting cost benefits—when the sales ratio falls below 40%, factories' bargaining power is significantly weakened, and they may have to offer concessions to destock.
According to publicly available industry data, mainstream quotes for polyester filament yarn POY 150D are currently 7500-7700 yuan/ton, FDY 150D at 8000-8200 yuan/ton, and DTY 150D at 9000-9200 yuan/ton. If the sales ratio remains low, a price reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton for some specifications is expected next week.