The linked rise in crude oil and polyester feedstock prices triggered a sharp reaction in the polyester filament yarn market on July 8. Industry public data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises surged from 42.9% the previous day to 103.6%, a single-day increase of 60.7 percentage points. This figure not only returned above the breakeven line but also suggests that downstream weaving mills, after days of waiting, began concentrated restocking.
Instant Effect of Cost Transmission
The price transmission mechanism of the polyester supply chain was fully validated on July 8. Crude oil, as the upstream of polyester feedstock, typically takes 2-3 trading days for its price fluctuations to pass through to polyester filament yarn, but this time the downstream reaction was almost simultaneous. Analysis suggests this is due to polyester filament yarn prices already being at a relatively low level, combined with low inventory at weaving mills. Once a clear upward signal from the cost side emerged, procurement decisions were executed quickly. The day's sales data shows that some enterprises achieved sales-to-production ratios as high as 300%, while the lowest was only 10%, indicating extreme divergence.
This divergence means large polyester filament yarn suppliers, leveraging brand premiums and stable supply capabilities, secured orders first; small and medium manufacturers, with weaker bargaining power, failed to fully benefit from this wave. For downstream buyers, choosing suppliers requires more attention to their raw material inventory and cost transmission speed, rather than just looking at quotes.
Inventory and Price Expectation Game
Since the second quarter of 2026, social inventory of polyester filament yarn has been accumulating, with the industry's average inventory days once exceeding 25 days, well above the safety line of 15 days. The sales surge on July 8 helps digest some inventory in the short term, but its sustainability depends on whether raw material prices can remain high. If crude oil enters a downward volatility channel, causing polyester feedstock to fall, downstream may turn to wait-and-see again.
Historical experience shows that a single-day surge in the sales-to-production ratio is usually followed by 1-2 weeks of concentrated order release, then returns to normal. Therefore, the actual support of this data for prices needs to be observed through the average sales-to-production ratio over the next seven days, which should stay above 80%. For weaving mills, this is a window to lock in low-cost raw materials, but excessive chasing of price increases is not advisable.
Regional Response Differences in Industrial Clusters
Feedback from regional industrial clusters shows that weaving mills in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, Zhejiang, responded most actively, with sales-to-production ratios generally between 150% and 200%; while Wujiang in Jiangsu and Changle in Fujian were more cautious, with ratios mostly in the 70%-80% range. This divergence reflects differences in inventory structures and order backlogs among clusters. The Xiaoshao area, dominated by water-jet looms, has higher capacity utilization and faster raw material turnover, making it more sensitive to price signals; Wujiang, with a larger proportion of jacquard machines, has longer order cycles and slower restocking pace.
Foreign trade companies should note this regional divergence: if orders are concentrated in the Xiaoshao area, local spot supply of polyester filament yarn may tighten, pushing prices up 5%-8% in the short term. For export orders with delivery times of 3-4 weeks, it is advisable to lock in raw material prices in advance.