On July 7, 2026, the polyester filament yarn market reported an alarming set of data: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 42.9%, a sharp drop of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 43 tons were purchased by downstream customers, with inventory pressure rapidly accumulating at the chemical fiber plants.
This figure is not an isolated fluctuation but a concentrated release of industry supply-demand imbalance. Looking at the specific sales data of 23 sample enterprises on that day, only two achieved or exceeded a balanced sales-to-production ratio (200% and 80% respectively), while the remaining 21 enterprises all had ratios below 60%, with more than half below 30% and the lowest at only 10%. Such widespread weakness goes beyond normal market adjustments.
Three Direct Triggers for the Plunge
The primary factor is high inventory levels at downstream weaving enterprises. Major weaving clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan experienced a concentrated restocking period from late June to early July, pushing grey fabric inventories generally to a high level of 30-45 days. Faced with such high finished goods inventory, weaving plants can only suspend raw material purchases and prioritize consuming the polyester filament yarn already stocked.
Secondly, end-user apparel export orders slowed significantly at the end of the second quarter. Persistent inflationary pressures in European and American markets have further tightened fast-fashion brands' ordering rhythm from 'small batches, multiple orders' to 'scattered replenishment.' Overseas buyers' increased sensitivity to garment costs forces weaving enterprises to compress raw material costs, adopting a 'purchase on demand, never stockpile' attitude towards polyester filament yarn.
Third, raw material prices for PTA and MEG experienced high-level volatility in early July, with unclear market direction. Chemical fiber plants are more inclined to hold prices firm on the cost side, while downstream acceptance of current price levels is limited, leading to a price negotiation stalemate between buyers and sellers. Although some enterprises have chosen to offer discounts to stimulate sales, this 'price-for-volume' strategy has not effectively activated the overall buying market.
Industrial Chain Transmission and Regional Divergence
This phenomenon of plunging sales-to-production ratios is sending a clear destocking signal upstream along the industrial chain. If polyester filament yarn plants' inventory days consistently exceed 15 days, they will be forced to actively reduce operating loads. As of July 7, some plants have already begun planning production cuts of 5%-10%. If the sales ratio cannot recover to above 60% within the next week, the scope of production cuts may expand.
From the perspective of regional industrial belts, the most sensitive reactions are in the Shaoxing and Wujiang areas. These two regions have a high proportion of small and medium-sized weaving enterprises, which face greater pressure on capital turnover and are more cautious about raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, the home textile industrial cluster in the Nantong area, with relatively stable orders, was less affected in its polyester filament yarn procurement rhythm, but overall procurement volume still saw a month-on-month decline of about 15%.
It is worth noting that this decline in sales ratios is not a universal industry-wide downturn. Certain differentiated products, such as cationic dyeable polyester filament yarn and fine denier yarn, maintained relatively stable shipment volumes, reflecting the resilience of end-market demand for functional fabrics. This suggests that product structure adjustment may be a long-term strategy for chemical fiber plants and weaving enterprises to cope with cyclical fluctuations.
Market Expectations and Price Trend Analysis
In the short term, polyester filament yarn prices face downward pressure. A sales ratio consistently below 50% will force plants to stimulate shipments through price reductions. Spot transaction prices for POY and FDY may loosen by 200-300 yuan per ton within the next week. However, given that the PTA cost side remains at a relatively high level, the room for deep declines is limited, and the market is expected to enter a period of volatile bottoming around current price levels.
From a medium-term perspective, whether the traditional peak season of 'Golden September and Silver October' at the end of the third quarter materializes will be a key variable determining market direction. If export orders show seasonal recovery in August and weaving enterprise inventories are digested, the polyester filament yarn sales ratio is expected to recover to above 70% in September. Conversely, if end-user consumption remains persistently weak, the industry will face a deeper destocking cycle.