The sales data from July 7 poured cold water on the chemical fiber industry. The average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 42.9%, a sharp drop of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 43 tons were purchased by downstream users, with the remaining 57 tons or more directly converted into inventory.
Uneven Distribution Behind the Numbers
Looking at individual enterprise data, the sales-to-production ratios on that day were highly uneven: only one enterprise achieved a ratio of 200%, three enterprises were in the 60%-80% range, while the vast majority fell into the low range of 20%-45%. Three enterprises even reported ratios between 10% and 16%. This distribution pattern indicates that the market is not completely frozen but shows clear polarization—a few enterprises achieved overselling through aggressive price concessions, while most others continued to struggle with sluggish sales.
It is worth noting that the 200% ratio appeared in only one enterprise, not as an industry-wide phenomenon. This typically implies that the enterprise adopted significant price discounts or special sales policies to 'grab' sales in a weak market. However, for the industry as a whole, such a case is not broadly representative and instead indirectly confirms overall demand weakness.
Why Downstream Buying Sentiment Turned Cold
Downstream users of polyester filament yarn are mainly weaving mills and texturing plants. Early July typically falls into the traditional off-season for textiles, with end-use garment orders entering a lull and weaving machine operating rates generally low. Public data from the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that the comprehensive operating rate of weaving enterprises in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region has dropped from about 75% in June to less than 65%, directly reducing raw material procurement demand.
On the other hand, upstream raw material prices for PTA and MEG have fluctuated sharply recently, leaving the market with unclear expectations for future cost trends. Downstream users generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed, small-batch, multiple-order' procurement strategy, unwilling to build large inventories during a price downtrend. This 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality further suppresses the recovery of the sales-to-production ratio.
From a cost perspective, crude oil prices experienced a phased pullback in early July, causing the overall valuation center of the polyester chain to shift downward. Market participants generally expect polyester filament yarn prices still have room to fall, so end users prefer to wait for a lower procurement window.
Inventory Pressure and Price Game
Sustained low sales-to-production ratios mean industry inventories are accumulating rapidly. According to industry public data, if the current ratio level continues for more than a week, the social inventory of polyester filament yarn will increase by about 15%-20% compared to the end of June. Rising inventory pressure will force more enterprises to join the ranks of price concessions, forming a negative cycle of 'price drop → user wait-and-see → lower ratio → further price cuts'.
For upstream polymerization and spinning enterprises, the most direct response is production cuts. Some polyester plants have already begun planning unit maintenance or load reduction in mid-July, aiming to balance supply and demand by actively shrinking supply. However, this adjustment measure has a time lag and typically takes 2-3 weeks to transmit to the spot market.
From an industrial belt perspective, the reactions in chemical fiber clusters such as Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu are particularly critical. These areas account for nearly 70% of the country's polyester filament yarn capacity, and their operating rate adjustments will directly determine the supply-demand pattern for the next 1-2 months.