On July 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 42.9%, a sharp drop of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure signals a sudden freeze in downstream buying sentiment, with only a few companies managing to clear inventory through price concessions, while the majority struggled with sluggish sales.
The Signal Behind the Freeze
The distribution of sales data shows a clear 'long tail' pattern: the highest ratio among sampled firms reached 200%, while the lowest fell to around 10%, with most companies concentrated in the 20%-45% range. This divergence indicates that despite the overall downturn, a handful of firms achieved excess sales through special channels or pricing strategies, but the vast majority are facing mounting inventory pressure.
Historically, a polyester filament sales ratio below 50% signals that downstream weaving mills have entered a 'wait-and-see' mode. The current 42.9% figure is near the year's low. The immediate cause is downstream pessimism about future prices—amid volatile raw material costs for PTA and ethylene glycol, weaving mills generally expect further price declines for polyester yarn, leading them to operate with minimal or zero inventory.
The Squeeze from Both Sides
The polyester filament market's weakness stems from a 'two-way squeeze' between costs and demand. On the supply side, new PTA capacity continues to come online, suppressing raw material prices. On the demand side, export orders for apparel and home textiles have slowed due to high inflation and destocking cycles overseas. According to public data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value in the textile industry has dropped from double digits to single digits in the first half of this year, with some months even seeing negative growth.
Notably, this buying freeze is not an isolated event in July. Over the past three months, the polyester filament sales ratio has repeatedly oscillated between 40% and 60%, reflecting a 'weak equilibrium' in the market. Each time prices attempt a modest increase, downstream resistance triggers a sharp drop in sales, a stark contrast to the speculative 'buy on rising prices' behavior seen in the same period of 2023.
Regional Responses and Adjustments
In key textile clusters such as Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu, weaving mill operating rates remain at 60%-70%, but raw material inventory days have been compressed to 5-7 days, far below the 15-20 days seen last year. This 'just-in-time' procurement strategy shortens order cycles for polyester filament factories and complicates production scheduling.
Some polyester plants have begun proactively adjusting their product mix, shifting part of their regular POY capacity to differentiated products like cationic dyeable or flame-retardant polyester, aiming to escape homogeneous competition through higher value-added offerings. However, the market for differentiated products is limited and requires downstream mills to have compatible equipment and techniques, making it unlikely to become a mainstream solution in the short term.