On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 35.5%, a sharp decline of 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure signals the end of the recent concentrated replenishment cycle, as downstream users collectively retreated to the sidelines, leaving market transactions sluggish.
Data Behind Supply-Demand Rhythm
Looking at the distribution that day, only 3 out of 21 sample enterprises had a ratio above 50%, with one reaching 70%, while two fell below 20%, including a zero-transaction case. This extreme divergence indicates that not all companies face the same sales difficulties—leading players maintain some shipment volume through channel and customer loyalty, but small and medium producers are seeing rapid inventory accumulation.
More notably, the 35.5% ratio has remained below the 40% threshold for several consecutive days. Data from July 6 to 8 also showed similar weakness, suggesting this cooling is not a one-day fluctuation but a normal retreat after the replenishment cycle ended. Earlier in the week, stable raw material prices and opportunistic buying by some weaving mills pushed the ratio above 80%, but terminal orders did not expand correspondingly, making the replenishment unsustainable.
Industry Chain Transmission: From Filament to Weaving to End Market
The sharp drop in polyester filament sales directly reflects the cautious stance of the midstream weaving sector. It is currently the traditional off-season for textiles, with loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang generally around 60%, and some small mills have even reduced production due to high-temperature power cuts or insufficient orders. After last week's concentrated raw material purchases, downstream users now have enough inventory to support 10-15 days of production, so there is no urgency for new orders.
This pattern of "concentrated replenishment followed by rapid retreat" essentially stems from uncertainty in end demand. Apparel brands and home textile companies are shortening order cycles from quarterly to monthly or even weekly, forcing weaving mills to maintain low raw material inventories and fast turnover. Polyester filament producers face a dilemma: if they cut prices to stimulate sales, they may reinforce downstream wait-and-see sentiment; if they hold prices firm, they risk rising inventory pressure.
Notably, feedstock prices for PTA and MEG have been trading in a narrow range recently, providing no clear directional guidance. Theoretical processing margins for polyester filament have been compressed to thin levels, but if sales remain sluggish, some plants may proactively cut prices to destock by month-end, triggering a new round of price negotiation.