On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises fell sharply to 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. Among the 21 sample companies, only three recorded ratios above 40%, while most hovered between 20% and 30%, with one even reporting zero. Market transactions were sluggish as downstream users retreated to the sidelines after a concentrated restocking phase, intensifying the supply-demand game in the chemical fiber chain.
Background
The sales-to-production ratio is a core indicator of market activity in the chemical fiber sector. A reading of 35.5% means more than 60% of daily output remained unsold. The distribution of disclosed data shows most enterprises clustered in the low 20%-35% range, while a high of 70% was recorded just one day earlier, indicating that restocking demand was extremely short-lived and concentrated. This 'pulse-like' buying behavior typically implies that downstream weaving mills have already replenished their inventories and lack immediate motivation to purchase more.
Notably, the data was collected on July 10, which falls in the traditional off-season for textiles. Summer heat reduces weaving operating rates, and terminal garment orders enter a lull period. As a key upstream raw material for midstream fabrics, PFY's weak sales ratio directly reflects the sluggish transmission from end-consumer demand to intermediate processing across the entire textile chain.
Industry Implications
What does the persistently low sales ratio mean for chemical fiber enterprises? First, inventory pressure will accumulate rapidly. PFY is a continuous production product with high shutdown costs, so factories typically maintain high operating rates. When sales fail to absorb output, social inventories rise passively. Historical experience shows that when the ratio stays below 40% for consecutive days, enterprises are often forced to cut prices to free up cash, potentially triggering a new round of PFY price declines.
For downstream weaving mills, the current wait-and-see stance is not passive but rational. Under expectations of falling raw material prices, delaying purchases can lower production costs. However, if this 'buy on rising, not falling' psychology becomes a consensus, it will further aggravate upstream inventory pressure, creating a negative feedback loop. Industry public data shows that sales ratios for polyester chips and polyester staple fiber have also been weak over the past week, indicating the problem extends beyond PFY to the entire polyester chain.
From a regional industrial belt perspective, traders in major PFY producing areas such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing (Zhejiang), and Shengze (Jiangsu) generally report a noticeable decline in inquiries during early July, with actual transactions limited to small urgent orders. Some weaving mills have begun planning summer production cuts or maintenance to reduce raw material consumption.