On July 8, the polyester filament yarn market experienced a pulse-like rally. Industry data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises surged from 42.9% the previous trading day to 103.6%, a single-day increase of 60.7 percentage points. Behind this number lies a concentrated downstream restocking triggered by the synchronized rise in crude oil and polyester raw material prices. However, the wide dispersion in data across enterprises—from 300% to 10%—exposes the structural fragility of this rally.
Cost Transmission: The Linkage Effect of Crude Oil and Polyester Raw Materials
The direct driver of this sales ratio jump is the cost side. From July 7 to 8, international crude oil prices strengthened continuously, driving up the prices of PTA and MEG, the key polyester raw materials. For polyester filament yarn producers, raw material costs account for about 70% of total costs. Price increases in raw materials directly compress processing margins. Historical patterns show that when raw material prices rise by more than 2% in a single day, downstream weaving companies often initiate a round of 'panic restocking' to lock in relatively low raw material costs. The July 8 sales data is a textbook example of this logic.
However, it is worth noting that the raw material price increase was not uniform. The PTA spot market rose about 1.8% on the day, while MEG only increased by 0.5%. This discrepancy means that the cost support for different specifications of polyester filament yarn is not equal. For conventional POY and FDY grades that rely heavily on PTA, cost transmission is more direct; for differentiated grades that use more MEG, the cost push is more limited. This may be one of the underlying reasons for the wide fluctuation in sales ratios, ranging from 40% to 300% on the same day.
Sales Divergence: Structural Differences in Restocking Behavior
The sales data from 20 sample enterprises on the day showed extreme divergence: five companies had ratios exceeding 150%, with a high of 300%, while six companies were below 70%, with a low of 10%. This divergence is not accidental. From a regional industry cluster perspective, conventional weaving hubs like Shengze and Changxing were more aggressive in purchasing, while areas focused on differentiated products, such as Xiaoshao and Haining, were more cautious.
For companies with ratios above 200%, it typically means their product specifications are in a 'tight supply zone' within the downstream inventory cycle. For example, 75D/36F FDY for conventional linings and 150D/48F POY for tent fabric became targets for concentrated buying under the expectation of raw material price increases. Conversely, companies with ratios below 50% often produce high-value or niche products, where downstream customers are less price-sensitive and tend to purchase based on actual orders rather than stockpiling.
This divergence also reflects the financial health of downstream weaving companies. Currently, terminal apparel export orders have not shown a clear recovery, and weaver operating rates remain at a relatively low 65%-70%. In this context, companies that can make large, one-time purchases of polyester filament yarn typically have stronger cash flow reserves or more stable export order support. Financially constrained companies choose to wait, preferring to risk future price increases rather than tying up working capital.
Inventory Cycle: Can the Pulse Rally Last?
The 103.6% sales-to-production ratio indicates that sample enterprises collectively sold out their daily output. However, this is more a transfer of inventory from upstream to downstream than an expansion of true end-demand. According to polyester plant inventory data, the average industry inventory for polyester filament yarn was about 18-20 days in early July, down from 22-24 days at the end of June. This sales surge will further reduce plant inventory to around 15 days, but downstream weaver raw material inventory will simultaneously rise to 12-15 days.
The sustainability of this restocking cycle depends on two variables. First, whether raw material prices can maintain their upward trend. If crude oil prices retreat, polyester raw materials will lose cost support, and the downstream 'buy-on-rise' sentiment will quickly fade, potentially causing the sales ratio to fall back to the normal range of 50%-60%. Second, the follow-through of terminal orders. Although autumn/winter fabric orders are starting to emerge, they are mostly in small batches with multiple shipments, which cannot support large-scale raw material consumption.
Historical experience shows that similar pulse-like sales rallies occurred three times in 2025, each lasting an average of only 2-3 trading days before the ratio quickly fell back. Therefore, the July 8 reading of 103.6% is more likely a 'one-day event' rather than a trend reversal. For buyers, the risk of chasing prices at this point is accumulating.