On July 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 42.9%, a sharp 29-percentage-point decline from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, fewer than 43 tons were absorbed by the market. Inventories are piling up rapidly, while downstream weaving mills' purchasing willingness has hit a low point.
Data Behind the Signal
According to publicly available sample data, most enterprises recorded sales-to-production ratios between 20% and 45%, with only a few achieving a 200% ratio through price concessions. This divergence indicates that pricing strategies and customer stickiness are starting to diverge significantly even within the same supply chain tier. As a core product in the chemical fiber chain, sharp fluctuations in polyester filament's sales ratio often signal a demand-side contraction across the entire textile raw materials market.
The weak buying sentiment among downstream users is not an isolated phenomenon. It directly reflects insufficient orders and finished product inventory buildup in the weaving segment. In the fabric market, sales of conventional varieties have slowed notably, with some small and medium-sized weaving mills actively reducing operating rates to minimize raw material procurement and capital occupation. This negative feedback loop, transmitting from the terminal to the upstream, is accelerating within the chemical fiber industry.
Cost-Price Dilemma
Polyester filament prices have previously been suppressed by volatile upstream costs of PTA and ethylene glycol. Although raw material prices have not experienced severe declines recently, downstream capacity to absorb high-priced inputs has clearly weakened. When the sales ratio remains below 50%, mills face a dilemma: either maintain prices and bear the financial pressure of rising inventories, or cut prices to stimulate sales, further squeezing already thin processing margins.
The move by some enterprises on July 7 to offer price concessions and achieve a balanced sales ratio indicates that some have chosen the latter. If such concessionary behavior becomes a trend, it will drag down the entire polyester filament price system, affecting related products like polyester chips and polyester staple fiber. For buyers, a short-term price window is opening, but caution is warranted: this price drop is driven not by cost reduction but by demand collapse, potentially leading to greater volatility.
Ripple Effects Across Industrial Belts
Major production and sales regions for polyester filament, such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, have already seen slight declines in operating rates. Weaving clusters have shifted from 'replenishing as needed' to 'buying as used,' with some even consuming previously built-up stocks. This de-stocking behavior will further suppress sales ratios in the short term but may help bring inventories back to reasonable levels in the medium term.
Notably, grey fabric transaction volumes in the Keqiao fabric market also declined during the same period, confirming the weakness in end-use garment orders. Foreign trade orders have slowed due to high overseas inflation and inventory adjustments, while the domestic market is constrained by weak consumer confidence. The data linkage between industrial belts suggests this is not a localized problem but a synchronized cooling across the entire chain.
Market Outlook and Operational Strategies
The core contradiction in the polyester filament market lies in the inertia of high operating rates on the supply side versus persistently contracting demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty. In the short term, it is difficult for the sales ratio to quickly return above the 60% threshold, and the industry may enter a multi-week 'active de-stocking' phase.
For upstream mills, flexibly adjusting operating rates and avoiding rigid price support that leads to inventory bloat is a more pragmatic strategy. For downstream users, the current price bottom has not yet been confirmed; blindly bargain-hunting may risk further losses. However, if prices fall below cost lines, phased buying opportunities will emerge.