On July 8, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises closed at 103.6%, a sharp increase of 60.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This surge was directly ignited by the rebound in crude oil and polyester raw material prices, which fueled downstream purchasing sentiment. However, the more critical question is whether this pulse-like market movement signals a bottom for the chemical fiber industry.
Market Pulse: From Ice Point to Boiling Point in One Day
According to public industry data, on July 8, the sales-to-production ratios of sample enterprises showed extreme divergence: some companies achieved ratios as high as 300%, while others recorded only 10%. Overall, more than half of the sample enterprises reported ratios above 80%, indicating that the restocking behavior was not an isolated phenomenon but a collective response.
This magnitude of fluctuation is extremely rare in the chemical fiber industry recently. Compared to previous trading days, where the ratio lingered in the 40%-60% range amid market pessimism, the July 8 surge essentially represented a concentrated release of pent-up demand. When upstream cost signals became clear, downstream weaving enterprises rushed to lock in supplies to avoid future cost increases.
Cost Transmission: Crude Oil Rebound as Trigger, Demand as Underlying Logic
The direct trigger for the ratio surge was the rise in crude oil and polyester raw material prices. After a period of correction, international oil prices rebounded technically, driving up the prices of PTA and MEG. For polyester filament yarn, raw material costs account for over 80% of production costs, so any fluctuation in costs quickly transmits to final quotes.
However, it is worth pondering whether downstream enterprises actively restocked due to improved orders. The data shows that among companies with ratios exceeding 100%, most were in the 150%-300% range, indicating panic buying. If terminal demand for apparel and home textiles has not genuinely recovered, this round of restocking may simply shift inventory from upstream to downstream, rather than achieving true destocking.
Industry Impact: Short-term Sentiment Repair, Medium-term Observation Needed
For polyester filament yarn producers, a ratio above 100% means short-term inventory pressure is alleviated and cash flow improves. Some companies may take the opportunity to raise prices to repair previously squeezed profit margins. For downstream weaving enterprises, however, the sudden cost increase compresses already thin processing margins. If terminal orders cannot raise prices simultaneously, weavers will face a 'two-sided squeeze.'
From a regional perspective, factories in key production areas like Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang Province have maintained stable operating rates recently, but the sharp fluctuation in sales data reflects fragile market confidence. The chemical fiber industry is highly dependent on inventory cycles. A single day's data surge does not signify a trend reversal; only when the ratio consistently stays above 100% for several consecutive weeks can the market be confirmed as stabilizing.