On July 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 42.9%, a sharp decline of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure sends a clear signal: downstream buying sentiment has hit rock bottom. When the sales-to-production ratio falls below 50%, it means that more than half of the day's production cannot be absorbed by the market, and inventory pressure begins to transmit upstream.
The Real Picture Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the specific data from 23 sample enterprises on that day, a clear polarization emerges: only two companies achieved ratios of 200% and 80%, while the majority hovered between 10% and 60%, with seven companies falling below 20%. This extreme dispersion indicates that the market is not experiencing a broad recovery; rather, individual companies are achieving temporary destocking through profit-sacrificing sales. Industry public data confirms that some enterprises did adopt price-cutting promotions that day, but the overall effect was limited, with most still facing the dilemma of sales falling short of production.
From an industrial chain perspective, polyester filament, as a core intermediate in textile chemicals, directly reflects the operating willingness of downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. A 42.9% ratio implies that end-market demand—whether for apparel fabrics or home textiles—has not generated sufficient order support for intermediate links. This aligns with the broader macroeconomic context of slowing textile and apparel export growth and a modest domestic consumption recovery.
Weak Demand Meets Inventory Pressure
The reluctance of downstream users to buy stems from multiple overlapping factors. First, end-brand apparel and home textile companies have generally adopted a 'small batch, multiple orders' procurement strategy to cope with uncertain consumer markets, directly discouraging weaving mills from building large inventories. Second, after a previous price rally, polyester filament prices are now in a high-range fluctuation zone, leading downstream users to anticipate a price correction and thus choose to wait rather than chase prices.
From the cost side, raw material prices for PTA and MEG have fluctuated recently but have not provided sufficient cost support for polyester filament. When upstream raw material prices soften, downstream users are more inclined to wait for lower price points. This 'buy on rising, avoid on falling' psychology is particularly pronounced in the chemical fiber market: the day of the sharp drop in sales ratio coincided with market expectations of potential price declines.
Enterprise Strategy Divergence and Market Clearing Signals
Facing the sharp decline in sales ratios, chemical fiber enterprises have begun to diverge in their response strategies. Some leading companies, leveraging their scale advantages and financial strength, have opted for profit-sacrificing sales to maintain market share, as evidenced by the 200% ratio case that day. In contrast, more small and medium-sized enterprises find themselves caught in a dilemma: lowering prices leads to losses, while maintaining prices results in inventory build-up. This divergence is essentially a market clearing process: companies lacking cost advantages and customer loyalty may be forced to reduce production or exit during this adjustment.
For industrial clusters, weaving enterprises in major polyester filament production areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan may face further pressure on operating rates. If the sales ratio remains below 50% for several consecutive days, some factories may implement production cuts to support prices, which would then transmit upward to the PTA segment.