Uneven Chemical Fiber Market: July 7 Production-Sales Data Reveals Shift in Downstream Buying Sentiment

On July 7, the polyester filament yarn market saw a sharp drop in trading activity. Industry public data shows that the average production-sales ratio of sample enterprises fell to only 42.9%, a significant decline of 29 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure directly reveals that the cautious attitude of downstream weaving mills towards raw material procurement has been transmitted to the chemical fiber production end.

Market Signals Behind Production-Sales Data

The production-sales ratio plummeting from over 70% to below 43% means that nearly 60% of polyester filament yarn produced that day failed to convert into actual orders. Although some enterprises attempted to boost sales through price concessions, they only managed to barely achieve a balanced production-sales ratio, with overall buying sentiment remaining weak. Specifically, among the 23 sample enterprises surveyed, only one achieved a production-sales ratio of 200%, while most were concentrated in the range of 20% to 60%, and several had ratios below 20%. This extreme divergence reflects a lack of consistent bullish expectations in the market, with downstream users preferring to purchase on demand and maintain fast turnover.

From the cost side, recent PTA and ethylene glycol prices have been oscillating narrowly, without clear unilateral trends, providing limited cost support. Meanwhile, polyester plants are gradually accumulating inventory pressure, especially small and medium-sized factories facing significant cash flow stress. This combination of "stable costs but rising inventories" makes downstream weaving mills more willing to wait for lower prices rather than chasing high-priced stockpiles.

Industrial Transmission and Regional Responses

The main polyester filament yarn producing areas in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are directly affected by this production-sales decline. Weaving clusters in Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have seen operating rates slightly decline from their second-quarter highs. Some fabric manufacturers report that although terminal garment orders are recovering, they are mostly small-batch, multi-shipment models, with large and long-term orders significantly reduced. This has led weaving mills to shorten their raw material procurement cycles and reduce single purchase volumes, directly dragging down the production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn.

It is worth noting that July is traditionally a low season for textiles. High temperatures have led some weaving mills to adopt staggered production or output reduction measures, further suppressing demand for chemical fiber raw materials. This year's off-season production-sales data is even more sluggish than in previous years, suggesting that the recovery in end-consumer demand may be weaker than expected, potentially prolonging the inventory destocking cycle.

Short-term Outlook and Operational Strategies

Based on current production-sales data, the polyester filament yarn market is likely to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term. To alleviate inventory pressure, polyester plants may continue to introduce promotions or discounts, but given that raw material costs have not collapsed significantly, the room for deep price declines is limited. For downstream users, this is not an opportune time for concentrated stockpiling; maintaining a low-inventory, fast-turnover operational strategy is more advisable.

For Buyers - Maintain a demand-driven procurement pace, avoid blindly bottom-fishing when production-sales ratios are low, to prevent inventory depreciation risks from further price softening. - Monitor polyester plant inventory dynamics and maintenance plans; if large-scale production cuts occur, consider moderately increasing stock levels. - Prioritize suppliers with stable cash flow and good brand reputation to reduce delivery risks associated with cash flow issues at small and medium-sized enterprises.

For Export Enterprises - Leave flexibility in export quotations, as weak domestic markets may force factories to increase export efforts, triggering price competition. - Closely track textile operating conditions in key overseas markets (e.g., Southeast Asia, South Asia); if local demand picks up, lock in raw material supply early. - Use the current window of relatively stable raw material prices to negotiate price terms for long-term orders with clients, locking in profit margins.