Polyester Filament Sales Plunge 30% in a Day, Bottom Signals Emerge in Chemical Fiber Market

42.9%—that was the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament sample enterprises on July 7. Compared to the previous trading day's closing data, it plummeted by 29 percentage points. This is not a simple intraday fluctuation, but a concentrated manifestation of the underlying contradictions in the chemical fiber industry chain.

When the sales-to-production ratio falls below the 50% warning line, it means more than half of the day's capacity has not been converted into actual sales. The purchasing willingness of downstream weaving enterprises has hit rock bottom, and raw material inventory cycles are switching from active replenishment to passive destocking.

The Real Temperature Behind the Data

Looking at the specific sample data, among 23 sample enterprises, only one achieved a sales-to-production ratio of 200%, while the rest hovered in the range of 10% to 60%. Among them, as many as 7 enterprises were below 20%, accounting for more than 30% of the total. This extreme divergence indicates that the market has not suffered a total collapse; rather, the limited price concessions by leading enterprises are insufficient to leverage overall demand.

Some enterprises barely achieved a balanced sales-to-production ratio through price reductions, but at the cost of further depressing market expectations. When 'price concessions' become the norm, downstream procurement psychology shifts from 'waiting for a drop' to 'waiting for an even bigger drop,' creating a negative spiral.

As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber sector, the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament directly reflects the matching degree between weaving-end operating rates and terminal garment orders. The 42.9% figure is already about 15 percentage points lower than the three-year average for the same period, matching the low level of the 2023 July slack season.

Chain Reaction Across the Industry

The collapse of the sales-to-production ratio will not stop at the polyester filament stage. Inventory pressure on upstream PTA and MEG will subsequently rise. Current PTA social inventory is already at a medium-to-high historical level. If destocking at the polyester filament end remains sluggish, PTA plants may be forced to advance or extend their maintenance schedules.

The downstream weaving sector is also under pressure. The operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions had already dropped to around 65% by early July, 5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Gray fabric inventory days are generally above 30 days, with terminal orders mostly consisting of small, urgent batches, lacking support from sustained large orders.

More critically, on the cost side. International crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the $75-80/barrel range, with PX prices following the fluctuation but not showing a trend decline. This means polyester filament enterprises are facing a triple squeeze of 'rigid costs, weak demand, and high inventory,' with processing profits approaching the breakeven line.

Market Bottom Signals and Traps

Historical data shows that when the polyester filament sales-to-production ratio remains below 40% for three consecutive trading days, it often corresponds to a phased price bottom. The July 7 data is extreme but has not yet formed a continuous signal. If the ratio remains below 45% for the next two trading days, it will likely trigger concentrated production cuts or maintenance actions by factories.

However, a bottom does not equal a rebound. Current terminal garment export data has not shown substantial improvement, and the destocking cycle in European and American markets is still ongoing. The year-on-year growth rate of textile and garment exports in the first half of 2026 has slowed to 2.3%, with the continuous effect of order diversion to Southeast Asia.

For buyers, the risk at this point is a 'bottom-fishing mentality.' Enterprises offering price concessions are mostly small and medium factories under cash flow pressure, whose product quality and delivery stability are questionable. Low-priced goods may come with defects such as short meters or low strength.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Extend the procurement window to 7-10 days to avoid impulsive orders driven by a single day's low price, focusing on the trend of the sales-to-production ratio over three consecutive days. - Prioritize enterprises with a stable sales-to-production ratio above 80%, as they typically have stronger bargaining power and more stable quality control systems. - Include a 'price protection clause' in contracts, stipulating that if the market average price falls by more than 3% within 7 days, renegotiation can be triggered to hedge against sharp drops.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - The current spread between export and domestic prices has narrowed to within 100 yuan/ton. Export orders may consider pricing in RMB to lock in costs and avoid exchange rate fluctuations. - Focus on the demand from Southeast Asian markets for differentiated polyester filament varieties, such as cationic dyeable polyester and high-elasticity yarn, which are less affected by price wars in general grades. - Sign monthly framework agreements with upstream suppliers, stipulating minimum offtake volumes, to avoid being the first to have supply cut off during extreme fluctuations in the sales-to-production ratio.